The Daily Forecaster

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Bias:               While 1.4180-90 caps I look for losses to reach 1.4057-85 at least and I suspect 1.4019

Daily Bullish

Gains seen as expected that reached the 1.4233 target and just above at 1.4245. However, I feel there is a moderately good chance that we've seen a high here. It is a little early to tell but only look for a new high should the 1.4057-85 area support and generates a break back above 1.4190. If this is seen (and even a direct break above 1.4190) then look for follow-through above 1.4245 to 1.4280-00 at least. Take care here also. We'll need a move above here to begin suggesting the higher target at 1.4700-17 is attainable.

Medium Term Bullish
2nd June:  Yesterday's peak at 1.4245 may well have sorted out the high here so take care. We shall need the 1.4020-57 area to support to generate extension above 1.4280-00 to suggest 1.4700-17 is still possible.

Daily Bearish

I am encouraged by both the stalling area and the structure of the move to 1.4245 to take serious notice of the possibility that we may have seen the actual high already… Still, there is a little way to go to confirm this so I'll take this step by step. I do feel that today is more likely to be bearish. While 1.4130-40 caps I'll look for losses down to 1.4085 minimum and I suspect to 1.4020-57. Expect a correction from this support area. However, while this remains below 1.4100-10 the next leg lower could well test the 1.3910-30 area. Next support is then seen at 1.3792.

Medium Term Bearish
1st June:  While the current move is higher there is a big daily bearish divergence and plenty of resistance points to look at - starting from 1.4233 & 1.4280 and then much higher at 1.4700-17. Below 1.3792 would confirm the divergence and cause stronger losses.

I shall be presenting a seminar in Hong Kong on Saturday 27th June at the Excelsior Hotel in Causeway Bay. Please see http://www.earlthorn.com/ for details.

My apologies that due to some technical problems I am unable to provide a PDF file today….