| Resistance: | 1.2900-20 | 1.2960 | 1.2995 | 1.3034-52 |
| Support: | 1.2860 | 1.2820 | 1.2764 | 1.2711-38 |
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Bias: Overall I feel the greater risk has turned lower and the only uncertainty is how far any pullback can move
Daily Bullish
The recovery from Friday's low at 1.2764 does pose a few questions but the break of the bullish divergence should basically turn the overall picture bearish. Thus to revert to a more bullish structure we're going to need the 1.2820 support to hold. A break above 1.2900-20 would assist but I'd still be cautious until any gains break above 1.2992 & 1.3034-52. If this latter move is seen then the chances favor gains through to 1.3095-07 at least and probably 1.3159-92 which should cap. Next resistance lies at 1.3281.
Medium Term Bullish
26th January: A 4-hour bullish divergence does exist but seems weak given that the daily divergence is broker. Thus we'll need a break back above 1.3192 and 1.3281 to generate any deeper reversal higher.
Daily Bearish
The low at 1.2764 was fairly close to the 1.2787 support but I feel that the pullback from there hasn't really provided any real impetus as yet. Losses have been seen this morning already and we'll need breach of the 1.2820-60 congestion area to retest 1.2764 and probably follow-through for 1.2711-38 at least and potentially the 1.2656 support. Take care around here. Only breach maintains the downside for extensive losses that should eventually reach 1.2328-65.
Medium Term Bearish
21st January: Given the 4-hour bullish divergence has almost disappeared we should be prepared to run with a trailing stop for a possible extension lower. We just need to be careful at 1.2747, 1.2672 and 1.2610. Breach actually opens up risk of seeing 1.2328-65.
Elliott Wave Comments
20th January:
The third ABC structure within a triple three lower may still occur. A wave equality target lies at 1.2610 - but this may be a bit low. There is an 85.6% projection at 1.2721 and overall the 85.6% retracement of the 1.2328 - 1.4717 rally lies at 1.2672. This seems to be the more likely target.
21st January:
Yesterday's comments still remain valid - but the break down in the 4-hour bullish divergence means we should keep our options open. Loss of the wave equality target in the third Wave c at 1.2610 would appear to suggest that the 1.3824 low was a Wave -i- and the 1.4362 high was Wave -ii-. A 138.2% projection lies at 1.2365.
26th January:
The push down to 1.2764 almost looked like Wave efb in an expanded flat but the recovery has been limited. I am beginning more to feel that the downside still hold greater risk. We should take care around the 76.4% projection of the losses from 1.3834 which is at 1.2656 but I feel the 1.2328-65 area should more likely be seen - possibly further.
