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The Daily Forecaster

Thu, Nov 5 2009, 04:22 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

Bias:       While 133.80-07 supports there is still room for a move to 136.60  (max 137.28-43)

Please read the attached PDF file which provides more detailed analysis

Daily Bullish

Gains were seen as preferred although these extended higher than expected and raise the chance of seeing the ideal target at 136.60 minimum. However, I should add that at any point above 135.66 there will be a vulnerability to a reversal lower. While the additional gains can be seen the 133.80-134.07 area should support. This should generate a rally back above the 134.60-80 pivot area and on above 135.16 to the 135.66 high seen yesterday. This should cause a correction, but much shallower before the final move up to the ideal target at 136.60. Allow for 136.82. Beyond here I'll be more cautious. There is a deeper target at 137.28-42 though I am less keen on this.

Medium Term Bullish
4th November:    If price can manage to push above 133.22 and then 134.52-67 then there is a scenario that would call for a move as high as 136.61-82… max 137.28-45. Take this in stages.

Daily Bearish

As we move higher I feel the risk of reversal get higher. At the moment I think the 133.80-134.07 area will support and I feel we should be looking closer to the 136.60-82 area for signs of a cap and reversal. At most 137.28-43 could be seen while the larger picture remains bearish. Thus, only an earlier break below 133.80 would concern and suggest a more direct bearish route that would extend losses through 133.00-20 and 132.49 and back towards the 131.71 corrective low at least. This should produce a pullback ahead of the 130.98 low.

Medium Term Bearish
5th November:   In some ways I am quite satisfied with the pullback which if it reaches 136.60-80 would appear to complete a larger consolidation pattern. Thus watch the broad 136.60-137.28 area for signs of a potential cap.

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site along with a new report showing the prior day’s support & resistance levels.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Thu, Nov 5 2009, 04:28 GMT