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The Daily Forecaster

Fri, Jun 26 2009, 02:30 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis...

Bias:            While 95.49-66 supports the upward ratcheting can continue

Daily Bullish

The break above 96.04 provided the expected follow-through to the low end of the 96.50-85 area but this has caused quite a firm pullback. I see last resort support between 95.49-66. While this can hold there still remains the possibility that price can generate a correction back higher at the very least and potentially the target is back at 97.00-19. To get to that higher target, assuming the support holds, a break above 96.04 again will provide follow-through to 96.38 at least - and while this holds we could see a sideways range developing. Above 96.38 would retest 96.58 but would probably see a correction before breaking to reach the 97.00-19 resistance target.

Medium Term Bullish
23rd June:  The break of the 95.32-51 area is not viable in a bullish structure. Thus to get us back on a bullish track we'd need a move above the 97.17-26 area at least. Only then does the 98.56-87 area look possible again.

Daily Bearish

The correction from the 96.56 resistance has been moderately deep and is close to forcing me to concede further losses but before this can happen the 95.66 support must break and although I feel this will probably mean that the downside will become stronger again I also see support at 95.49. Thus breach here would generate stronger follow-through to the 94.87 low and probably the 94.26-55 area. I feel this would hold for a correction higher... Then note next support at 93.84 and 93.38...

Medium Term Bearish
25th June:  I feel that the corrective structure has turned into a messy triangle that should have a low today around 1.3800 and should be followed by a move to 1.3945-65. Once this is complete the next larger leg lower should be seen and penetrate the 1.3747 low easily.

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.

There are only a few more seats available for my seminar on price forecasting in Hong Kong tomorrow at the Excelsior Hotel in Causeway Bay. Please see http://www.earlthorn.com/ for details and to register your attendance

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Fri, Jun 26 2009, 02:34 GMT