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The Daily Forecaster

Thu, Jun 4 2009, 03:49 GMT
by Ian Copsey

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Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis...

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Bias:                I suspect a pullback higher at the very least - while this remains subdued watch key support

Daily Bullish

Well, the minor resistance I quoted at 1.6663 turned out to be major resistance… The drop has been strong and indeed generated a bearish Key Day Reversal. This commonly causes a few bars of consolidation - or alternatively direct resumption of losses… Thus to return us to a more bullish scenario we really need a day of strong gains. Early resistance is at 1.6384-1.6414 and if this caps we can forget any strength. A break above here would push on to the next key resistance area at 1.6451 at least and potentially 1.6500-21. I feel it will cap if seen. Only breach would threaten a retest at the 1.6661 high.

Medium Term Bullish
4th June:  Following the sharp reversal yesterday we are going to need a swift break back above 1.6414 and 1.6521 to retest 1.6661 which may just then resurrect the chance of reaching 1.6849-63 and maybe 1.6954.

Daily Bearish

The sharpness of the losses and the Key Day Reversal does tend to argue for a major high having been seen… Still, we have to use care as such an event can lead to a bar or two of consolidation. If there is any chance of new lows today then we should see the 1.6384-1.6414 resistance cap. A move lower from there (or directly) that pushes below 1.6240 would set up losses to 1.6161 at least and I suspect 1.6080-1.6122. While I feel this may well hold also take note of support around 1.6043 also. Only breach would risk losses to the 1.5853 swing low over time.

Medium Term Bearish
4th June:  We have broken the reversal level already and unless we see a solid recovery today I suspect we have seen the major high at 1.6661 and thus we should be planning for a correction lower… Key supports for now  are at 1.6080-1.6122 and below there at 1.5852.

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.

I shall be presenting a seminar in Hong Kong on Saturday 27th June at the Excelsior Hotel in Causeway Bay. Please see http://www.earlthorn.com/ for details.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Thu, Jun 4 2009, 03:57 GMT

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