Wed, Mar 11 2009, 03:48 GMT
by Ian Copsey
FX-Forecaster.com | View company's profile
| Resistance: | 1.1617 | 1.1649 | 1.1690-22 | 1.1749 |
| Support: | 1.1566-79 | 1.1525 | 1.1482 | 1.1431 |
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Bias: I can't rule out a test of the 1.1690-22 area but while it caps there is more downside risk
The break of 1.1531 provided losses that broke through 1.1453-60 but then stalled at 1.1431. The recovery from there has been quite firm and I can't rule out this seeing one final move to the 1.1690-22 area. However, if there is to be any further strength then this area must break. If seen then look for follow-through back towards 1.1749 and the peaks around 1.1790-10 en route the 1.1847 & 1.1883 peaks.
Medium Term Bullish
9th March: Friday's losses are more encouraging for the downside and this should limit any upward corrections. Only back above 1.1810 would cause a further test at 1.1883 and even then we'll need to watch for where the overhead trend resistance lies.
I was rather surprised with the reversal from 1.1431 which wasn't anticipated… The recovery makes it look like a complex correction and thus while the 1.1690-22 area caps I still feel the downside can develop. There is immediate support at 1.1555-69 and breach of this support would imply the correction is complete and would therefore trigger another leg lower that should extend through 1.1431-60 and down to the 1.1357 support. Take care here as I feel this will support. Also note the 1.1311 low.
Medium Term Bearish
9th March: It looks like we are finally on our way lower and while 1.1646-65 caps look for follow-through below 1.1483 and onto 1.1357 and later to 1.1262 minimum, possibly as deep as 1.1163.
For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ups for potential trading levels highlighted in the report are now available on the Daily Forecast page of my web site.
Published on Wed, Mar 11 2009, 03:52 GMT
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