.
Bias: We need the 0.6540 support to hold to allow gains above 0.6623 to confirm a stronger rally
Daily Bullish
We saw mostly a rather strange sideways consolidation develop over the past two days. If this is going to turn directly into a resumption of the uptrend we really need the 0.6540 support to remain intact. From here a break back above 0.6580-04 would pressure follow-through above 0.6623 for 0.6677 at least. Take care here as this could cause a pullback. However, I feel the evidence would then be mounting for direct extension through 0.6677 for 0.6776 at least. Take care here. Only breach maintains gains for 0.6944.
Medium Term Bullish
25th November: Gains have been quite firm and I suspect an initial test of 0.6692 at least. I suspect that whether directly or after a correction this will break for stronger follow-through above 0.6902 and the 0.7014 high.
Daily Bearish
The 0.6396-10 support held perfectly and while we have seen a return close to the 0.6615 high we really need breach to extend gains. Thus any losses of the 0.6540 support would begin to eat away at supports. If seen then look for a follow-through to 0.6503 and probably much further to 0.6450 & the 0.6402 corrective low. Take care this could stall the downside. Breach would maintain the downward momentum for 0.6344 and 0.6280...
Medium Term Bearish
25th November: Only a break back below 0.6300 would cause a stronger retest of the 0.6073 & 0.6006 lows...
Elliott Wave Comments
28th November:
Wednesday saw gains push up to 0.6615 from where we have seen a sharp correction followed by a slow recovery. I am a bit mixed on the wave structure although my basic view remains bullish. As long as we see a fairly swift move back above 0.6604-15 we should then see a stronger follow-through higher. If this occurs then I feel the 0.6615 high was Wave a of a 3 wave rally back to around the 0.7014 high.
However, in the meantime I cannot rule out a recycling of the correction and a break of 0.6540 woudl highlight this risk. If seen then look for extension lower to the 61.8%-76.4% retracement area at 0.6450-79 and later to the 0.6402 low and possibly just below but no lower than 0.6360.
Thus only below a 50%-61.8% correction to the rally so far at 0.6280-0.6344 would cause a rethink.
