The Daily Forecaster

.

Bias:                   While 1.2043-69 caps I feel the greater risk is still lower to 1.1781 at least

Daily Bullish

Losses were seen as expected but tumbled below the 1.1987 target and the 1.1941 swing low. This has reversed the expectations for another high. For today I see strong resistance between 1.2043-69 and this seems likely to cap any corection higher. Thus only a break above 1.2075 would provide a deeper pullback higher. If seen there is minor resistance at 1.2100-10 and stronger at 1.2145-50. Take care at this higher area. Only breach here as well would provide additonal gains for 1.2206 & 1.2250.

Medium Term Bullish
25th November:  Well, the loss of 1.2941-87 was not expected but does seem to break the bullish structure. To generate a second chance we need a break above 1.2075 first and then 1.2150 to possibly retest the 1.2250-96 area again.

Daily Bearish

While losses were expected the break of 1.1941-87 brings with it a much more compelling bearish stance. This should see any pullback higher stall probably at 1.2043 and maximum 1.2069. From this resistance a break back below 1.1990 would provide a basis for a retest of this morning's 1.1915 low and probably extend losses to 1.1864 minimum and I am more infavor of a deeper move lower to 1.1756-71. This should provide a temporary base but overall the larger target lies closer to the 1.1549 corrective low.

Medium Term Bearish
25th November:   The break of the 1.1941-87 area was a surprise and as such it seems as if we should resurrect the 1.1549 initial target. This should cause a pullback before losses further out.

Elliott Wave Comments

25th November:

The 50% retracement in what I had thought to be Wave iv of Wave (c) at 1.1987 was broken cleanly and even the prior hourly swing low at 1.1941. With the sequence of higher lows broken it would appear that the 1.2296 high was Daily Wave -v- and thus the implication is a correction to the entire rally from 0.9644.

In this first decline I suspect we shall see a decline to the Wave -b- of Wave -v- and this lies at 1.1549. I susepct that this morning's 1.1915 low was Wave -a- of Wave -iii- and thus while a 50% pullback at 1.2043 caps (max 1.2069 in an alternate count) I feel the next move will be lower through 1.1915 and onto the 223.6% projection in Wave -iii- at 1.1781. Look for this to cause a correction ahead of the final decline close to the 1.1549 low.

Only a break back above a larger 61.8% correction of the decline from 1.2296 at 1.2150 and the 76.4% retracement at 1.2206 would threaten a retest at 1.2296.

•  The Brief Daily Forecaster