| Resistance: | 1.4764-80 | 1.4818 | 1.4866 | 1.4910 |
| Support: | 1.4700-10 | 1.4639 | 1.4590 | 1.4557 |
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Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks though 1.4700-10 needs to hold to allow a stronger recovery
Daily Bullish
A marginal new high was seen on Friday at 1.4955 but a large gap lower this morning does seem to threaten possible extension lower. Thus with price still looking vulnerable we shall need confirmation of gains. There is support at 1.4700-10 which should ideally hold while a bullish structure is possible. From there a break above the 1.4764-80 area should provide a lift. This should then extend gains to 1.4818 and probably 1.4866. Take care as a pullback is then possible. Further resistance is then found at the 1.4955 high.
Medium Term Bullish
13th November: Only back above 1.5360 would provide relief to the downside and until then watch for the development of bullish divergences in hourly and 4-hour charts. Note that daily FXF-RSI is already seeing a strong bullish divergence.
Daily Bearish
Break of 1.4760 generated losses to just below the 1.4645 support. Any break now below 1.4700 would threaten a stronger bearish move. Initially this should be back to the 1.1.4557-69 area and probably direct follow-through to 1.4462 at a minimum. This is quite important support as breach would open the risk of much stronger losses to 1.4385 minimum followed by 1.4340 and 1.4305. Also note the 1.4250 support.
Medium Term Bearish
13th November: The 1.5124-49 long term target support was swept aside and I do find the next target area difficult to identify. Certainly daily FXFRSI is showing a strong bullish divergence. I see potential support at 1.4462 and below there at 1.4305.
Elliott Wave Comments
14th November:
We still cannot ignore the strong daily bullish divergence but this has not been joined by shorter term momentum yet. Therefore there does still seem risk of additional losses. To repeat yesterday's observation, if we assume the 1.5599 low was a Wave -a- and the corrective high at 1.6196 was Wave -b- then a 161.8% projection lies at 1.4462. That will mean that we should be looking for a 5 wave decline in Wave -c-.
This would probably mean that 1.4557 was Wave iii of Wave -c-. A 50% correction lies at 1.4950-72 which remains below the last swing high at 1.4991. While this caps it does suggest room for losses to the 1.4462 target although this will mean a short Wave v. Also note the 1.4305 support.
Thus only above 1.4991 would suggest the downtrend is complete and this should mean we see a move back to the Wave –b- high at 1.6196.
