| Resistance: | 1.2505 | 1.2549-78 | 1.2615 | 1.2675 |
| Support: | 1.2415-38 | 1.2392 | 1.2347 | 1.2328 |
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Bias: I feel this will be a down day towards 1.2328-47 but resistance at 1.2615 (max 1.2720-50) must cap
Daily Bullish
Loss of 1.2476 indeed projected price down to just above the 1.2392-1.2420 support area. I still feel there is more to go. In the short term we should be aware of the risk of a pullback that on a break above the 1.2491 corrective high seen this morning would extend through 1.2507 and towards 1.2578 at least. Only if this breaks is there risk of extension to the 1.2615 corrective high and at most 1.2675. Also take note of the area of congestion around 1.2720-50 that should also provide a pullback.
Medium Term Bullish
10th November: The 1.3016-44 area gave way and the upside is less clear now. We shall need a break back above 1.2680 and 1.2800 to bring more confidence in a return to the 1.2923 and 1.3115 peaks en route 1.3297.
Daily Bearish
The break of 1.2476 did extend losses rather messily but only to 1.2437. However, while price remains below 1.2615 I still feel that additional losses are more likely and which should then provoke follow-through to 1.2392-15 minimum. Take care here as this could cause a pullback. Breach implies direct extension to 1.1328-47 where there is one significant target that suggests a reversal higher. Only breach of the 1.2328 low would trigger stronger follow-through lower for 1.2284 en route 1.2140-75.
Medium Term Bearish
12th November: Given the losses over the past 2 dys we must be aware of a larger downside risk. However, watch supports at 1.2392-20 followed by 1.2140-75. Only breach will maintain losses for 1.2048 and at most 1.1866-85.
Elliott Wave Comments
13th November:
This picture still remains mixed. However, it does seem most likely that we either saw a Wave (a) at 1.3297 or a deep Wave –iv-. In both patterns it will imply an ABC pattern lower.
In a Wave (b) retracement we would expect at most a wave equality target in Wave c at 1.2347 – so just a very deep Wave (b) from where we should see a direct recovery back above 1.3297.
The alternative is either a 138.2% projection in Wave c which implies a target at 1.2048 or a 161.8% projection which implies a lower target at 1.1866. This latter target does match the larger 138.2% decline in the daily Wave (C) at 1.1885. However, what doesn’t match is the expected extension in Wave –v- which requires a minimum of 61.8% that implies a target at 1.1729.
Thus I remain more in favor of this being a Wave (b) retracement that does seem likely to edge down towards the 1.2347 area but then reverse higher.
