| Resistance: | 98.01 | 98.30-65 | 98.96 | 99.47 |
| Support: | 97.14 | 96.86 | 96.40 | 95.70-00 |
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Bias: Would prefer higher confirmed by breach of 98.30-65 else below 97.14 sees 95.70-00 at least
Daily Bullish
Monday's gains stalled just below the 99.62 resistance and the pullback has been deep, enough to have some concern over the bullish stance. I would still prefer this side but we shall need a break back above 98.01 initially followed by 98.30-65 to really clear the way for stronger gains. If seen then look for strength back to Monday's high at 99.47 and probably further for 99.72 & 100.15 en route 100.54 again.
Medium Term Bullish
12th November: Price has been predominently moving sideways and while this morning's low at 97.14 holds I can still make out a bullish stance for a break above 98.65 & 99.47 en route 100.54 and later to 102.88.
Daily Bearish
Failure to press above 99.62 and subsequent failure below 98.30-65has take price all the way down to the 97.25-50 congestion area. This is rather deep though we do need a break below this morning's 97.14 low followed by 96.86 to extend losses more strongly to 96.00 and 95.71. This may stall the move temporarily but the outlook would then look quite bearish. Breach maintains the downward momentum for 95.12 and 94.22.
Medium Term Bearish
11th November: Failure to move to the 96.07 low may well mean we have exhausted the downside. Only a break below 97.14 would resurrect the chance of seeing 95.71-96.07 and probably 94.22. Next support is then seen at 92.77.
Elliott Wave Comments
12th November:
This has not been an easy pattern and I still have some doubts about the triangle in Wave b of Wave iii. However, it does provide a fairly simple indication if this morning's low at 97.14 breaks. This would break the triangle pattern and imply deeper losses in what woudl then appear to be Wave iii (Wave i to 96.74) which has a 138.2% projection at 94.22 and a 176.4% projection at 92.77.
This pattern would possibly suggest that we saw an alternate Wave -iv- at 100.54 which should then see a decline in Wave a to around the 90.88 low before a pullback in Wave c and extension in Wave c.
If I still have any preference then it is for 97.14 to be Wave b of Wave iii and thus we should see a break above 98.64 to confirm gains towards the 261.8% projection at 102.88. This would then imply a pullback in Wave iv and eventually a higher high.
