| Resistance: | 123.78-00 | 124.40 | 125.20 | 125.62 |
| Support: | 123.00 | 122.45 | 122.13 | 121.41 |
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Bias: While 122.13-45 supports the chances favor a reversal higher - else see losses to 121.41 & below
Daily Bullish
The 122.19 low has almost been reached this morning with a bullish divergence in the hourly chart. There is still risk of a second dip to this support. To take us back onto the preferred bullish recovery we'll need a break back above the 123.78-00 pivot area and if seen it should lift price up to 124.93-20 at least and potentially to 125.62 and 126.28. At this higher resistance take care. If there is any chance we'll see a larger drop then this resistance must hold. Breach allows 127.74 en route 130.37.
Medium Term Bullish
7th November: Target just about reached and thus from here take care. A move back above 125.20 and 126.28 will generate a stronger reversal higher towards 130.37 and 131.02.
Daily Bearish
Losses have developed as expected and have stalled just above the 122.19 low. We should allow for another dip that could see 121.80-122.19. However, only breach would imply we are seeing a larger decline if seen look for losses to extend lower to 121.41 at least. Take care here as this could cause a correction. Next support is seen at 120.92 (minor,) 120.25, 119.40 and stronger at 118.76.
Medium Term Bearish
5th November: I cannot rule out direct losses here and below 128.02 and 127.31-51 would imply follow-through to 125.25 and finally to retest the 122.19 low. There could be minor breach here but overall I feel a base will be expected.
Elliott Wave Comments
6th November:
The rally to 130.11 is seen as being Wave –ii- and as such we can generate a 138.2% projection in Wave –iii- at 123.32 which is around the area of the prior Wave b.
This should force a correction in Wave –iv- before losses to the 122.19 low to complete the flat correction at 122.19 and maybe a little beyond. I suspect this shouldn’t be lower than 121.80 but will fine tune one we have established the peak in Wave –iv-.
7th November:
Well we have just about achieved target with a bullish divergence in the hourly chart (oversold in the 4-hour) so the conditions are right for this to be a base in Wave Fc of a flat correction in Wave (b).
If this is correct then we should see Wave (c) begin to develop higher and quickly move back to the 130.37-131.02 area.
Only a break below 121.80 would suggest that there is risk for a deeper Wave c which sees a 138.2% projection in alternative Wave c at 118.76 and even a 161.8% projection at 116.68.
