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The Daily Forecaster

Fri, Dec 19 2008, 03:19 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

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Bias:              While 1.2115-25 caps I still have a slight preference for losses to 1.1756

Daily Bullish

Losses were seen as expected to reach just below 1.1833 to stall at 1.1813. From there we have seen a modest recovery back to 1.2115. While there is a little uncertainty now I feel that to generate any stronger push higher we shall need a break above the 1.2115-25 resistance. If seen then look for gains to extend through 1.2155 to 1.2198 at least and probably the 1.2278 resistance which should cap. Next resistance is then found at 1.2306 and 1.2409.

Medium Term Bullish
17th December:  Losses have continued and we can now lower our reversal level to 1.2220 and only above here suggests a stronger rally towards 1.2300.

Daily Bearish

Losses developed but then bounced from just below the 1.1833 support and this has caused some doubts over the wave structure. If we are to see a further decline we shall need the 1.2115-25 resistance to cap. Given the uncertainty I feel that we should now wait for loss of 1.1979 which would generate follow-through to the 1.1923-45 area. In turn this should break for another leg lower to the 1.1856-84 support which could hold in a consolidation. Thus final confirmation of new lows comes on breach of 1.1856 to see 1.1756.

Medium Term Bearish
19th December:   Losses have developed but look a little less firm now and thus we shall need the 1.2115-25 area to cap to maintain losses for 1.1756 initially and eventually the 1.1458 low.

Elliott Wave Comments

18th December:

The expected decline has progressed steadily and reached 1.1892. I feel this is Wave a of Wave v of Wave -c- lower. The 176.4% projection in Wave –iii- is at 1.1756 and I still see this as being the overall target. A 50% retracement in Wave b of Wave v of Wave -c- lies at 1.2005 and a 38.2% retracement at 1.1978. While this areas caps look for losses in Wave c of Wave v below 1.1892 and 1.1833 en route the 61.8% projection in Wave v at 1.1772 and at most the 66.7% at 1.1744. The 1.1756 target lies right in the middle of this range.

I still label the 1.3004 high as Wave (b) and thus we can generate projections in Wave (c) at 1.1365 (138.2%) and 1.1085 (161.8%.)

19th December:

This hasn’t been as clean as I would have liked with the 1.1813 low not really holding any internal Fibonacci relationships. However, it does represent a 76.4% projection in a possible triangle.

Thus this 1.2115-25 area must cap to maintain the potential for a drop to the 176.4% projection in Wave –ii- at 1.1756. Any break above 1.2125 suggests we will see stronger gains.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Fri, Dec 19 2008, 03:23 GMT