4
0
The Daily Forecaster
Mon, Dec 1 2008, 03:22 GMT
by Ian Copsey
| Resistance: | 1.2449 | 1.2465 | 1.2499-20 | 1.2553 |
| Support: | 1.2370 | 1.2340 | 1.2320 | 1.2275 |
.
Bias: While 1.2370 supports I feel the risk is still for slow gains to 1.2553 at least
Daily Bullish
Price saw gains as expected which stalled just below the 1.2476 peak. While the 1.2370 pivot area supports we can see this gradual rally continue. A break above this morning's high at 1.2449 should retest Friday's 1.2465 high and also push through to extend gains to 1.2499-20 and probably the 1.2553 area. Take care around here as this may cap. Only breach would extend gains to the next resistance at 1.2598 which may hold. Next resistance then lies at 1.2633-54.
Medium Term Bullish
1st December: I wish to take a more cautious approach to the upside. Certainly I feel we'll see a test of the 1.2553 area at least. However, only above here would argue for stronger gains to 1.2598 and probably the 1.2633-54 area en route 1.2782.
Daily Bearish
Gains have been painful to watch and I am becoming less bullish. However, I do feel we should see a move to the 1.2553 area but watch this closely. Any signs of a cap would suggest that we have merely seen a correction and thus the downside will become vulnerable again. A break below 1.2370 would assist the downside while break of 1.2320 and 1.2275 would herald stronger losses back to the 1.2123 low initially.
Medium Term Bearish
1st December: Take care here but while the 1.2553-98 area caps there is risk of losses developing that would quickly push the 1.2123 low. If this breaks it opens up much stronger losses.
Elliott Wave Comments
1st December:
While I cannot say the bullish wave structure has been broken the gains seen from the 1.1458 low have not really shown much power. We should watch the 50% retracement at 1.2553 and 61.8% at 1.2653.While these cap it would actually prefer a more bearish structure. Thus the next day or two are going to be crucial here.
For the upside to prove itself we shall need a stronger rally very, very quickly. A break above the 50% retracement at 1.2553 will help but then we should note the 61.8% retracement at 1.2654. We should also be aware of the potential bullish projections of the 1.2123 to 1.2364 move in which a 176.4% projection lies at 1.2633 and above there and 1.2654 a 238.2% projection lies at 1.2782. If seen this will be in Wave iii higher.
Any earlier failure at 1.2553 (and max 1.2654) would suggest that we are seeing a correction in a potential Wave -b- and subsequent break below 1.2370 and 1.2275 would add weight to us seeing a Wave -c- lower and below 1.1458...
Published on Mon, Dec 1 2008, 03:25 GMT
Archive
- The Daily Forecaster
Published On Thu, Jan 8 2009, 03:08 GMT - The Daily Forecaster
Published On Wed, Jan 7 2009, 03:07 GMT - The Daily Forecaster
Published On Tue, Jan 6 2009, 03:32 GMT - The Daily Forecaster
Published On Tue, Dec 23 2008, 02:37 GMT - The Daily Forecaster
Published On Mon, Dec 22 2008, 03:29 GMT
FX-Forecaster
| 2-42-23 #203 Uehara, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 151-0064, Japan
http://www.fx-forecaster.com | info@fx-forecaster.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
FXstreet.com will give you a 3 months membership as soon as minimum rebates have been generated (€150 for private trader/ €300 for corporate trader)
[Read Premium full description]
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2008 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.