• Home ::
• Technical ::
• Forex Forecasts ::
• The Daily Forecaster

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

8953308e-670f-4b4c-884f-e9783fa45358

0

0

The Daily Forecaster

Thu, Nov 20 2008, 03:19 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

.

Bias:                  I note support at 118.30 which I feel will hold for a reversal higher

Daily Bullish

While we did see initial gains these stalled at 124.27 which capped for stronger losses that have reached 119.22 this morning. I suspect we should see a little lower while 120.15-20 caps and causes losses to around 118.30. Take care here since I feel there is a risk this will support for a reversal back higher again. From there or a direct break above 120.20 we should then see gains through to the 121.00 pivot area and above there through 121.45-55 to the stronger 122.16-34 resistance.

Medium Term Bullish
20th November:  The break lower may well be part of a complex correction and thus only while 118.30 supports and we get a break back above 122.16-34 should the next barrier appear around 124.43-85 and max 125.66.

Daily Bearish

While 120.20 caps there is still risk for losses to extend a little further. A break back below 119.22 would then extend losses to the 118.30 area. Take care around here as I feel this may allow a reversal higher. Thus clean breach of 118.10-30 would maintain losses for 117.60-90 and probably further to 116.77 and 116.13. Further than this and we need exercise care. It may hold but there is also a deeper support found at 115.22.

Medium Term Bearish
20th November:   The downside is once again under pressure but watch supports at 118.30 and then at 116.13 & 115.22. Only below the latter will imply a stronger retest of the 113.60 low.

Elliott Wave Comments

19th November: 

We're struggling with Wave ii and this may be developing in a triangle. Thus we need to exercise some patience for this to develop. Above 125.02 would suggest the uptrend is on its way again back to 126.04 and above in Wave iii. Also take care at the prior Wave b at 128.42.

Below 121.00 and then 119.35-60 followed by 118.77 heightens the risk of a move back towards the 113.60 low.

20th November:

I still can’t rule out the triangle in Wave ii which could easily reach 118.30 in Wave ^a although a possible low is also possible at the 119.22 low seen already. If this lower level breaks then we’ll probably see a slightly deeper correction in Wave (b). The 76.4% retracement was satisfied at 117.60 so also note the 85.6% retracement at 116.10-13.

Only a break back above 121.00 & 122.16-34 would suggest we have seen the low already and cause a move higher in Wave ^b to 124.85-125.66.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Thu, Nov 20 2008, 03:22 GMT