• Home ::
• Technical ::
• Forex Forecasts ::
• The Daily Forecaster

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

048c510f-619d-42a6-9a8c-23e5d83e4819

7

0

The Daily Forecaster

Wed, Nov 19 2008, 03:13 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

.

Bias:              I suspect a dip to maximum 1.2177-92 but from there a rally is indicated

Daily Bullish

The 1.2365-96 provided a barrier as expected and this seems to imply that we are in the last decline before the uptrend resumes. So far this has reached 1.2273 and I see risk of a dip as far as 1.2230 and 1.2177-92 maximum. While this supports I feel that a reversal higher is possible. An earlier break above 1.2340 and yesterday's 1.2384 high would generate this earlier. This should quickly pass through the 1.2445 high and then to 1.2498, 1.2530 and 1.2583. Take care - only above sees direct follow-through.

Medium Term Bullish
18th November:  There is risk of sideways consolidation above the 1.2085-09 low but if seen should subsequently generate follow-through back above 1.2420-45 for 1.2767 & 1.2863 at least. If the consolidation comes as a triangle we could see a retest of 1.3015.

Daily Bearish

Price peaked well in the 1.2365-96 area and the decline has reached 1.2273 thus far. I tend to feel the 1.2330-40 area should cap for losses to 1.2230 at least and probably into the 1.2177-92 support area. This should hold. Thus only breach of 1.2170 woudl undermine the bullish structure and cause additional losses to 1.2146 at least and below there to 1.2085. next support is at 1.1995-05.

Medium Term Bearish
14th November:   The sharp move lower from 1.2444 should be noted but we'll need a break now below the 1.2049 area to maintain the negative bias. Through 1.1990 would add weight to losses towards 1.1654-91.

Elliott Wave Comments

18th November: 

Yesterday's dip all the way back down to 1.2109 may have been a flat correction but seems more like a potential triangle. This would imply a cap in the 66.7%-76.4% projection in Wave ^d to 1.2365-96. From here a final dip in Wave ^e would set up the end of Wave iv and for a move higher in Wave v closer to the 1.3015 high.

I envisage the Wave ^e should not be below the 1.2170 area and may stall a little higher. Thus any loss of 1.2170 would open the doors for stronger losses back below 1.2085 and lower to the 1.1863-22 area which I will need to confirm once highs are confirmed.

19th November:

It looks like the 1.2384 high yesterday was Wave ^d and thus a 61.8%-66.7% projection in Wave ^e at 1.2177-92 should be the most we see. However, allow for a 76.4% projection at 1.2146. From this support we should see Wave v develop.

Only below 1.2140 sees a larger decline to 1.1995-05 initially.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Wed, Nov 19 2008, 03:16 GMT