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The Daily Forecaster

Mon, Nov 10 2008, 03:41 GMT
by Ian Copsey

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Bias:            I still look for losses to 1.1590-16 at least & possibly 1.1539

Daily Bullish

The 1.2025-40 resistance held perfectly on Friday and this has led to the expected losses and I still feel there is further to go. Only a move back above this morning's 1.1812 corrective peak would provide short term concern for a reversal back to 1.1847 and at most the 1.1893 area. Any stronger bullish stance will require breach here which would extend gains to 1.1938 and Friday's 1.2022 high. Next resistance is then seen at 1.2106 & 1.2157 en route 1.2232.      

Medium Term Bullish
7th November:  While 1.2025-40 (max 1.2158) caps the downside still looks the more vulnerable. Thus only above 1.2160 will see additional gains to 1.2237, 1.2284 and 1.2375.

Daily Bearish

Losses developed as expected reaching the 1.1655-73 support. While there has been a pullback from there I feel this is now complete and thus the downside is the more vulnerable. I see resistance at 1.1812 and above there at 1.1847. However, I doubt we'll get this far. A break below 1.1721 and Friday's 1.1668 low would trigger follow-through to 1.1590-16 at least. Take care here as we could see a base form here or around 1.1539. While this holds we could see a period of consolidation. Breach again extends to 1.1458.

Medium Term Bearish
7th November:   I still prefer a bearish stance but we need to take care on how far this pullback travels. Ideally I'd like the 1.2025-40 area to cap but also see resistance at 1.2158. While this caps we can still see an attempt back down at 1.1458 and below.

Elliott Wave Comments

10th November: 

The 1.2022 high is now labeled as Wave iv although we should also consider the possibility of a triangle in Wave iv developing. Either way it does imply that we should see additional losses below this morning's low at 1.1734 and should break for Friday's corrective low at 1.1668.

Now, if this is a triangle then we should see losses reach the 76.4% retracement at 1.1590 and possibly the wave equality target in the second move lower (in Wave c) to 1.1539 which represents an 85.6% retracement. This level separates the two possible scenarios. Any breach would imply follow through in Wave a of Wave v to around the 1.1458 low.

Only back above 1.2022 will imply we have probably seen a short Wave c to 1.1458 and thus the prior Wave b at 1.2375 should be the automatic target...

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Mon, Nov 10 2008, 03:44 GMT

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