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The Daily Forecaster

Wed, Oct 8 2008, 02:37 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

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Bias:        I suspect the correction is complete but wait for a break above 1.1086 should extend gains to 1.1187 at least

Daily Bullish

The downside deepened slightly but quickly came back to retest the 1.1086 high and I suspect that while the 1.1020 support holds there is chance that we'll see a break back above 1.1086 that should extend the gains through 1.1117 and probably all the way to 1.1187 where we could see a correction develop. Breach there implies a sooner test of 1.1210 and 1.1293.      

Medium Term Bullish
7th October:   The direct break above the 1.1029 target while 4-hour momentum still looks firm makes me feel that we could just see a stronger bullish structure. However, only above 1.1117 would see this occur directly and if so then 1.1187 and 1.1293 are the next resistance areas. 

Daily Bearish

Losses edged a little lower to 1.0949. On the whole I am bearish but there is one scenario that would allow a retest at 1.0949 and possibly a little below (max 1.0920.) A breach of the 1.1020-26 area would undermine the immediate bullish structure and generate follow-through to 1.0970 and following a small correction down to the 1.0920-49 area for a second time. Only clean break of 1.0920 would trigger stronger losses to 1.0800-30.

Medium Term Bearish
7th October:   The break above 1.1029 means that we should be cautious of any bearish stance. Only below 1.0800 would bring some concern and extend losses to 1.0760 and 1.0691.

Elliott Wave Comments

6th October: 

The move to 1.0842 was not expected and cautiously I still feel this is probably Wave -a- of Wave -v- and thus a 50% retracement in Wave -b- comes to 1.0570. We should also note the 61.8% retracement at 1.0505.Once Wave -b- has been identified then we can look to how the rally can extend to the 1.1029 target. Only above 1.0842 would suggest this is occurring directly.

7th October:

The break above the 1.1029 target is opening the daily chart for re-interpretation. I will need to observe the coming few days to try and identify what structure is developing here. However, as things stand right now I can see a possible minor Wave v target at 1.1117. Beyond there is a possible 176.4% projection in Wave –iii- at 1.1187 and a daily wave equality target at 1.1293. Only back below 1.0800 now would likely take to a more bearish interpretation.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Wed, Oct 8 2008, 02:41 GMT