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The Daily Forecaster

Fri, Oct 3 2008, 03:42 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

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Bias:       While 1.1340 caps I feel a pullback below 1.1290 will extend losses to 1.1227 and 1.1185 at least

Daily Bullish

The break above 1.1307caused gains above 1.1374 but then stalled just below the 1.1417 high. Indeed, with a minor support line broken the immediate pressure appears lower. Thus to switch back to a more bullish stance we'll need a break above the 1.1340 pivot resistance which would then risk a retest of the 1.1411-17 area and possibly as high as 1.1519. Next larger resistance is found at 1.1590.      

Medium Term Bullish
3rd October:   Yesterday's continued gains appear to be more bullish and while the 1.1085-1.1112 area supports we should see gains back above 1.1417 for 1.1590 - but this looks like capping. 

Daily Bearish

The downside broke down yesterday to provide a test very close to the 1.1417 high. Howevern, I do note that a small supporting trend line has been broken and this tends to imply additional losses. Thus while 1.1340 caps look for the downside to progress down below 1.1290 and to 1.1227 en route 1.1185-00. Only below maintains the downside for 1.1085-1.1112.

Medium Term Bearish
3rd October:   It is possible that we just saw a double top but I doubt this. However, before returning to a more bearish stance we'll need a break below 1.1085. Just below there is support at 1.1041 and 1.1012.

Elliott Wave Comments

3rd October: 

Yesterday's strength followed through beyong my preferred resistance targets but did not have the strength to penetrate the 1.1417 high. However, this area was a 161.8% projection in the second Wace c higher. Thus I am beginning to think that we may be seeing a triple three in Wave efb of an expanded flat.

Thus we need to watch the 50% retracement in a second Wave x which rests at 1.1112. Just below is a good pivot support at 1.1085 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1041. Also note the intial support around 1.1185-00 which is the target for the breakdown of a small supporting trend line.

While these support areas hold we may be seeing an expanded flat correction whcich would see a final ABC move higher reach the 23.6% expansion at 1.1590.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Fri, Oct 3 2008, 03:46 GMT