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The Daily Forecaster

Fri, Aug 29 2008, 02:21 GMT
by Ian Copsey

FX-Forecaster.com

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Bias:  Mixed - waiting for breaks

Daily Bullish

The failure to break above 162.00 is so very frustrating and extends the whipsaws here. It has also made the wave development very difficult to place within a logical structure. If we are to see a move back higher then we shall need to see the 160.35-40 area hold. From there any move above 160.90 and more the 161.20 pivot area to provide any lift. If seen then look for follow-through once again back to 161.50-60 and probably the 161.99 high. Again, this needs to give way to spur higher to 162.77 and 163.08.      

Medium Term Bullish
26th August:   The reversal higher stalled at 163.08 and this may well be the highest we see. Only a break back above 162.81 would imply a move back to the 163.86 corrective high. Above there is resistance at 164.46-71. 

Daily Bearish

In the end the 161.99 high proved more of a barrier than anticipated. Basically I have always expected a test of the 158.59 weekly corrective low but this final decline is proving very difficult to pin down. I see support at 160.35-40 and to maintain downward momentum we'll need break here to take us back to the 159.92 low. I suspect this will also give way for 159.55 and possibly 159.12.

29th August: This last part of the decline has become extremely volatile. I have been expecting a retest of the 158.59 weekly corrective low but the manner of the decline is very unclear. A break below 159.92 will help and then we should watch supports at 159.55, 159.12 and then 158.59.  

Elliott Wave Comments

29th August:

Frankly the structure of the decline since the 163.86 high has been very unclear. I still expect a test of the major weekly low at 158.59 but quite how this is developing is very confusing. Possibly we are seeing an irregular triangle in a Wave -b- position and if so this will cause further whipsaws. Only a direct loss of 159.92 will now imply immediate losses to target.

Within an irregular triangle we could even see a move as high as 162.30 which would then maintain a narrower consolidation. Thus only above 162.30 and 162.77 would imply a move back to the 163.86 highs at least.

• The Brief Daily Forecaster

Published on  Fri, Aug 29 2008, 02:25 GMT