Slovakia: Monthly forecast
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Output and external balance
Fri, Jun 16 2006, 09:31 GMT
by Michal Musâk
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
The Statistical Office will release the 1Q06 GDP data. It has already published the flash estimate for the headline figure, according to which the real GDP grew by 6.3 %. In the past, the final figures used to be close to the flash estimate. Hence, markets will be more interested in the GDP structure. We expect that the economy has been driven especially by household consumption and investments. If consumption growth turns out as rapid, markets might price in more aggressive hiking by the central bank (average real wage growth will provide additional data about the potential demand pressures). On the other hand, if consumption is more moderate, this should be a market-neutral scenario. (...)
Published on Fri, Jun 16 2006, 09:34 GMT
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