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FX Strategy
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EUR/USD after extreme USD rallies
Fri, Sep 19 2008, 08:54 GMT
by John Hydeskov
Risks to EUR/USD remaining
- ·EUR/USD has fallen by more than 100%, annualised, during the past month.
- · Such moves are extremely rare; this is the first such dollar rally since 1992 and only the fourth since 1980. · Although the dollar may seem overbought by many yardsticks, the historical performance after extreme rallies suggests that further downside may be in store for EUR/USD in the coming months.
- · Rebasing past dollar rallies since 1980 to current spot levels, we find that on average EUR/USD has fallen to 1.32 after five months, before rising to 1.35 after one year.
- · If present performance repeats the patterns of the 1981 and 1984 dollar rallies, EUR/USD could fall below 1.30 before year-end.
- ·After 12 months the high-low range has been 1.19 -1.56 in today's terms, suggesting that directional volatility could become substantial in the months ahead.
Published on Fri, Sep 19 2008, 08:58 GMT
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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