http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2012-01-17.htmlMain forecast changes EUR/USD: Eurozone money market rates are expected to fall further and as a result we have opted to lower our 3M EUR/USD forecast to 1.26 from 1.28. We still look for improved global macro data to weaken the dollar during 2012, but elevated eurozone debt risks and the outlook for further ECB monetary easing means there is less potential for dollar weakness against the euro. As a result, we have lowered our 12M forecast to 1.34 from 1.38. While we do see potential for aTue, 17 Jan 2012 19:12:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2012-01-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-12-21.htmlMain forecast changes EUR/USD: Last month we cut our three-month and six-month EUR/USD forecast to 1.30. This target was reached last week, which poses the question: what now? Until a trough in the global slowdown is confirmed and until the new de facto zero rate ECB regime is fully priced, we expect the euro to remain pressure As a result under pressure. result, we have cut the 3M forecast to 1.28 - with risks skewed toward a temporary undershooting of this new target. Short euro positionsWed, 21 Dec 2011 19:28:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-12-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-11-16.htmlMain forecast changes EUR/USD downside risks have increased significantly over the past month. Not only on the back of sharply higher funding costs in southern Europe, but perhaps more importantly as a result of a weakening economic outlook. The eurozone economy is likely to have entered recession in the fourth quarter prompting the ECB to cut rates. We expect the ECB to deliver further rate cuts and for the policy rate to fall below 1% for the first time. This is a significant regime shift,Wed, 16 Nov 2011 13:39:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-10-17.htmlMain forecast changes EUR/USD has rebounded almost as rapidly as it sold off and is now looking set to test 1.40. Better-than-expected US economic data has reduced global recession risks, which have caused long dollar positions to be unwound. This has been the dominating driver of the rebound in EUR/USD, but political progress toward a recapitalisation of European banks is likely to also play a role. We doubt that investors will rotate into significant long euro positions in the near term - asMon, 17 Oct 2011 13:06:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-10-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-09-16.htmlThe cyclical outlook has weakened further and our risk scenario in last month’s FX Forecast: Dollar depreciation trend to resume (15 August) has come closer to being our main scenario. Our economists still expect the major economies to avoid a recession but we expect it to come close – not least in the eurozone. As a result, we expect markets to continue pricing ECB cuts and the euro to remain under pressure over the coming months. Euro downside risks persist against not only the US dollar butFri, 16 Sep 2011 12:31:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-08-16.htmlThe cyclical outlook has changed significantly over the summer and with it also the central bank outlook. The Fed now predicts near zero percent interest rates until at least mid-2013 and we expect it to be right in this prediction. Also, in the eurozone further hikes have been cancelled, as economic data has deteriorated and pressure on the European bond market has intensified – with a temporary drop in EUR/CHF towards parity as the most visible implication. NotwithstandingTue, 16 Aug 2011 12:43:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-08-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-06-16.htmlThe Swedish Krona has seen a sharp sell-off over the past month, as deteriorating risk sentiment has triggered a gradual unwinding of crowded long positions and as the break higher in NOK/SEK has attracted non-commercial sellers. The move higher in EUR/SEK appears overdone, however. The Riksbank is still expected to outhike the ECB and Swedish fundamentals are still outstanding – not least in an environment of sovereign debt concerns. Add to this very soft money market pricing of the RiksbankThu, 16 Jun 2011 13:13:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-06-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-05-16.htmlThe euro has been the worst-performing G10 currency over the past month as European sovereign debt concerns have resurfaced as a market theme. Also, the massive correction on commodity markets, the fact that money-market pricing of the ECB proved too aggressive and stretched long euro positioning ahead of the ECB meeting have added to the selling pressure on the euro. Looking ahead, however, we expect relative interest rates to resume their role as the dominant driver of the currency markets.Mon, 16 May 2011 12:07:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-05-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-04-15.htmlThe dominating theme on the currency market remains relative monetary policy – with the most visible implication being the depreciation of the dollar and not least against the euro. However, the clear trends seen over recent quarters are at risk of coming across bumps in the road. We look at three themes that are likely to affect the currency market: the expected decline in global PMIs, the heightened risks to global growth from rising commodity prices, and the possibility of peaks in relativeFri, 15 Apr 2011 17:33:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-03-15.htmlWhile the tragic events following the recent earthquake in Japan combined with continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region have the potential to de-rail global risk sentiment, we maintain our view that medium- to long-term euro support remains intact. Hence, we still look for EUR/USD to reach 1.50 on a 6M horizon. The outlook of an ECB rate hike in April combined with a soft Fed supports our longheld view of a stronger euro vs US dollar, (see Yield Forecast Update). EU leadersTue, 15 Mar 2011 14:22:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-03-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-01-18.htmlLast week, Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear that the ECB is closely monitoring inflationand in  doing so he reignited ECB rate hike expectations. The hawkish ECB rhetoric stands in stark contrast to that of the Fed’s Bernanke, who is still focusing on the risk of deflation. Our interest rate analysts (see New Yield Forecast: ECB hikes draw closer) expect that the monetary policy divergence we saw so explicitly last week between the eurozone and the US will widen further in 2011. RateTue, 18 Jan 2011 12:42:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2011-01-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-11-16.htmlEurozone peripheral concerns have triggered a euro sell-off, which, given the current uncertainty about Ireland, is likely to run further in the near term. As a result, we have reduced our one-month EUR/USD forecast to 1.34. We do not, however, expect Europe’s fiscal difficulties to trigger a reversal of the medium term dollar downtrend, as the monetary divergence between the ECB and the Fed, as well as strong support to risky assets, is likely to maintain an underlying depreciation pressure.Tue, 16 Nov 2010 12:48:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-10-15.htmlIt has been a hectic month since the last issue of FX Forecast Update. The Fed has made a big step towards a new round of quantitative easing (QEII), the Brazilian finance Mantega has “re-invented” the term ”currency war”, the ECB has stepped-up its “exit” process in respect of draining liquidity in the money market and risk appetite has recovered strongly pushing equities and commodities higher. It is now evident that global monetary policy is moving in different direction. The Fed, BoE andFri, 15 Oct 2010 13:20:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-02-16.htmlEurozone debt fears – more than just Greece : Greek debt concerns intensified during the past month, leaving the euro with a heightened risk premium. While an unsustainable Greek fiscal policy should not be a major concern for the eurozone as a whole (Greece only constitutes some 2-3% of total eurozone GDP) the situation has escalated to a point where it has become at least partly systemic. Market focus has turned to the other PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), whichTue, 16 Feb 2010 14:06:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2010-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2009-10-15.htmlThree months ago, the global outlook was in many ways more clear . The global economy was recuperating at a fast pace, albeit from a very low level, key indicators surprised on the upside and our expectation of a V-shaped recovery was overall being confirmed. Equity prices rose sharply, commodity prices climbed back toward levels that made sense from an economic point of view and the pro-cyclical, high-beta, currencies that were sold off when risk aversion dominated saw remarkableThu, 15 Oct 2009 21:42:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-11-14.html• We revised our FX forecasts in-between our regular forecast updates on 24 October; see Revised FX Forecasts: G10 and EM. Most notably, we raised all our short-term USD forecasts and pencilled in more JPY and CHF strengthening, along with more SEK and NOK short-term weakness. As risk sentiment was deteriorating sharply and no obvious triggers for an end to this was in sight, we considered it likely that things could worsen further. The rapid rise in risk aversion has stopped - albeit remainsFri, 14 Nov 2008 16:06:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-09-19.htmlLights not on yet. The financial crisis is moving into its second year and there are no comforting signs that the hurricane is fading. Over the past year banks have announced writedowns and credit losses of USD510bn, while capital raised runs at USD360bn. This USD150bn gap is taken off the balance sheet and the way banks are run means that credit available is being reduced by more than that. On top of this, it seems that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the financial sector toFri, 19 Sep 2008 08:44:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-09-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-05-06.htmlSummary • We have adjusted our EUR/USD forecast downwards and now expect the cross to trade at 1.55 in 3M and 1.50 in 6M • We still expect JPY strength going forward and see USD/JPY at 102 and 100 in 3M and 6M. EUR/CHF is also likely to turn lower, we expect 1.58 in 3M and 1.56 in 6M • We believe EUR/GBP will remain elevated over the coming three to six months before turning lower • NOK and SEK have good potential against EUR, while we expect AUD and NZD to underperform relative to USD • WeTue, 06 May 2008 14:51:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/fx-forecast-update/2008-05-06.html