Wed, Jul 8 2009, 10:43 GMT
by Erste Bank Bond Research Team
Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Sharp decline of Slovak economy in the first quarter along with the gloomy outlook on this-year German economic performance (being the key Slovak export market) lead us to predict this-year annual decline of Slovak real GDP at around 5-6%. Gradual recovery in Germany in the second half of 2010 along with the low comparative base will likely cause a small positive real GDP growth in 2010. Significant fallout in tax revenues will result in a fiscal deficit at around 6% of GDP, in our view, in both 2009 and 2010. We have lowered our inflation outlook for this year - due to decline in food prices (unrelated to season) and decline in tradable good prices we see average HICP inflation in 2009 at around 1.3%.
Published on Wed, Jul 8 2009, 10:45 GMT
Erste Bank
http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at
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