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Slovakia: July 2009

Wed, Jul 8 2009, 10:43 GMT
by Erste Bank Bond Research Team

Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG


Changes over previous version

Sharp decline of Slovak economy in the first quarter along with the gloomy outlook on this-year German economic performance (being the key Slovak export market) lead us to predict this-year annual decline of Slovak real GDP at around 5-6%. Gradual recovery in Germany in the second half of 2010 along with the low comparative base will likely cause a small positive real GDP growth in 2010. Significant fallout in tax revenues will result in a fiscal deficit at around 6% of GDP, in our view, in both 2009 and 2010. We have lowered our inflation outlook for this year - due to decline in food prices (unrelated to season) and decline in tradable good prices we see average HICP inflation in 2009 at around 1.3%.


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Erste Bank http://global.treasury.erstebank.com | Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at

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This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.

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