http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-07-01.htmlThere are a couple things going on that are impacting the price of the Australian dollar versus the US dollar. Among them: interest rates, economic developments and the global risk-taking environment. The US Federal Reserve’s Australian counterpart, the Reserve Bank of Australia, has maintained fairly solid footing on interest rates amidst a growing backdrop of economic questions and heated inflation. The Federal Reserve has made little to no headway on this front. This dynamic is largely whyTue, 01 Jul 2008 07:46:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-26.htmlToday is the big day. In a few hours everyone will be tuning in for a first-hand report on the latest Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. All the FOMC meetings seem increasingly important, but it’s those similar to today’s meeting, where officials could POTENTIALLY change policy direction, that really get the market riled up. The last three FOMC decisions, albeit all decisions to cut rates, actually sent the dollar rallying in the trading sessions that followed. And even though a rateThu, 26 Jun 2008 06:46:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-24.htmlToday begins a heavily anticipated FOMC meeting. Yeah, we know all the meetings are hyped-up quite a bit, but this one’s a little different. That’s because the head hauncho, Ben Bernanke, has changed his tone. Coming off a series of rate cuts that’s taken the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% all the way down to 2%, Bernanke is talking like he’s already prepared to start hiking his benchmark rate right back up. His comments over the last few weeks have been aimed most directly at inflation (ratherTue, 24 Jun 2008 13:50:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-23.htmlLots of times trading will reward you if you find patterns in historical price data and bet on it occurring again. It’s kind of like the whole “History repeats itself!” motto. Of course, history doesn’t keep on repeating itself, especially in financial markets. But there is another motto to remember: “The trend is your friend!” Here’s a trend for ya ... The euro has been on a dramatic run versus the dollar. This chart only goes back to the end of 2006, but the trend has lasted longer thanMon, 23 Jun 2008 09:39:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-19.htmlWe’re wondering: How credible is the Japanese yen risk-aversion play? Stocks have been less than stellar lately yet the yen has pretty much been sliding against the buck. That’s not exactly how it worked when subprime, credit crunch and writedowns were the new buzz words on Wall Street. But today the yen is giving us a little taste of old – stocks are weaker and the yen is firming up. But then again, today’s yen strength could be mostly technical. The dollar/yen pair is butting its head onThu, 19 Jun 2008 13:06:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-17.htmlThe US$ index was moving up nicely. But it seems the G-8 didn’t do as much as the market wanted. And what they did say didn’t do anything for oil other than lead to a new all-time record high today. Of course, higher oil continues to spell trouble for the dollar. Is it back down to the lower end of the channel again for the buck?Tue, 17 Jun 2008 07:12:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-12.v02.htmlThe British pound is precariously perched on near a key Fibonacci retracement level…and testing key chart support between 19400-50. Background fundamentals continue to deteriorate in Britain. And Prime Minister Brown is taking flak from many quarters. A good risk/reward long-term trade…we think so!Thu, 12 Jun 2008 14:22:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-12.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-12.htmlGive your risk thermometer a good shaking because mine are giving me conflicting readouts. Stocks, the primary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, are tumbling. The Japanese yen, now a secondary measure of risk-taking levels in the financial system, is also tumbling. So where’s the conflict, you ask? Normally, these two gauges move inversely to one another – one rises as the other falls and vice versa – based on the risk environment. But right now, they’re moving in roughlyThu, 12 Jun 2008 07:11:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-02.htmlWe’re sure you’ve heard this before: “Sell in May and go away!” It’s the media’s cute way of explaining the relatively low interest and falling prices during the summertime. Mostly because they believe anybody who’s anybody is off sunning themselves on the beach or out at a ballgame somewhere. Well, we’ve got a new little ditty for you: “Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today!” More specifically, we’re talking about the U.S. Dollar versus the Japanese yen – USDJPY. Leading up to May currencyMon, 02 Jun 2008 15:28:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-06-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-28.htmlPinpointing support and resistance levels in price charts usually isn’t too difficult. It simply involves finding previous points where prices bottomed out or topped out. But the task becomes a bit more difficult when there are no historical prices to target. Take the current skyrocketing price of crude oil. Almost anyone who follows the markets or drives to work has an idea that crude oil (and all energy prices for that matter) are at levels never seen before. So if you were to use price dataWed, 28 May 2008 07:48:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-21.htmlMore evidence the dollar is not immune to risk. Stocks getting clobbered today for a host of reasons—choose your poison. Lately the dollar and the stock market have been moving closely together. Higher stocks equal higher dollar and vice versa. Is a test of the dollar lows in the cards? The run back into gold and continued move in commodities has the look of safe haven. Dollar Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily:Wed, 21 May 2008 07:45:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-16.htmlIt’s like choosing between chocolate and vanilla, right? There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up. The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally. Despite, a steady stream of subprime‐trodden earningsFri, 16 May 2008 07:31:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-09.htmlWe are not making this up; it comes from IMF economist John Lipsky, quoted in a story today carried by Bloomberg: “IMF research indicates that if the dollar hadn't fallen from 2002 to 2007, oil prices would be $25 a barrel lower. Crude oil futures surpassed $120 a barrel this week for the first time. Commodity prices excluding fuel would be 12 percent lower, Lipsky said.” We are not sure about a $25 premium. But one thing has been true, we know the dollar has rallied in the last four of fiveFri, 09 May 2008 07:29:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-06.htmlWe got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it. One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to theTue, 06 May 2008 13:32:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-05-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-29.htmlWe’ve been dogging on the pound for a series of months now. And for the most part, we expect to be dogging on it for months to come. Basically, weak economic data points are going to weigh on Bank of England and their interest rate policies. That, in turn, should undermine the pound. But ... We could be on the brink of a major (or somewhat major) turn in the euro. Fresh off highs versus the dollar, pound, and yen, the euro is in need of a major cool down. If the cards fall right, this euroTue, 29 Apr 2008 10:03:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-24.htmlThere’s not a whole lot of technical analysis you can do when an underlying security or asset is shooting straight up through uncharted territory, record high after record high. But regardless of the situation, you can always analyze price action one day at a time. For crude oil, this is the only way to approach it right now – dissecting the daily battle between the bulls and the bears. It’s obvious the bulls have been in control for quite some time, but it looks as though their stampede isThu, 24 Apr 2008 13:11:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-23.htmlThis morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road. While correlations are fairly easy to spot, they never seem to be as easy to predict. It certainly isn’t child’s play, but it still seems a lot like follow‐the‐leader meets musical chairs. You have assets moving together (or apart) as expectedWed, 23 Apr 2008 15:53:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-14.htmlWhile perusing the latest Commitment of Traders Report, published on April 1st, we noticed that among the punters, like us, there was a 95% bullish reading i.e. 95% long open interest says players are positioned for the peso to move higher against the US dollar. This seems a fairly concentrated one-way bet. Often one-way bets lead to corrections, or intermediate-term trend changes. A look at the point and figure chart of the Mexican peso, with wave counts attached, suggests maybe its correctionMon, 14 Apr 2008 09:50:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-10.html‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse. Normally traders use bar and candle charts in analyzing currencies and whatever else they’re trading. This allows them to pinpoint key intraday levels that may come into play on a very short‐term basis. A line‐on‐close chart, on the other hand shows simply the open and close fromThu, 10 Apr 2008 13:47:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-08.htmlWe’ve learned in recent months that the housing situation in the UK is treading the same path as housing in the U.S. This morning we got fresh data that showed a 2.5% decline in UK house prices in the month of March. That’s the worst showing since recession hit the Kingdom back in 1992. The pound didn’t react well to the news. In fact it’s down nearly 200 PIPs on the session as I pen this. Not only is it a bad day for the pound, but today’s weakness pierces a key level of support and opens upTue, 08 Apr 2008 15:48:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/currency-snapshot/2008-04-08.html