Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
Agree or disagree? Comments? Your own forecast? Post your thoughts in the Forecasts discussion group!
| GBPUSD | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Nov 30 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 1.5950 | 1.5700 | 1.5500 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Anna Coulling | 1.6177 | 1.6242 | 1.5972 | Bullish | Bullish | Sideways | ||
| BBVA Bancomer Team | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| BoA FX, Rates and Commodities Team | - | 1.5800 | 1.5300 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Capital Economics Research Team | - | 1.5500 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 1.5840 | 1.5900 | 1.6200 | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Danske Research Team | - | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| GFM Research Private Limited | 1.6130 | 1.6200 | 1.6340 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research | - | 1.5200 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| Gus Farrow | 1.6080 | 1.5964 | 1.5663 | Bullish | Sideways | Bearish | ||
| HSBC Global Research Team | - | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| ICN.com analysis team | 1.5925 | 1.5740 | 1.5740 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Ilian Yotov | 1.6100 | 1.6300 | 1.6000 | Bullish | Bullish | Sideways | ||
| ING Global Economics Team | - | 1.5600 | 1.5500 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy | - | - | 1.5800 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Luc Luyet, CMT, CIIA | 1.5800 | 1.5800 | 1.6000 | Bearish | Bearish | Sideways | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 1.6100 | 1.6000 | 1.6100 | Bullish | Sideways | Sideways | ||
| NAB Global Markets Research | - | 1.6300 | 1.6400 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Nomura FX Research & Strategy | 1.5975 | - | - | Sideways | - | - | ||
| Rabobank Financial Markets Research Team | - | 1.6100 | 1.6300 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBC Economic Research Team | - | 1.6500 | 1.6200 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBS Team | - | 1.5780 | 1.5570 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Richard C. Lee | 1.5923 | 1.6125 | 1.6271 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Scotiabank FX Strategy Team | - | 1.6200 | 1.6200 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| TD Securities Research Team | - | 1.6000 | 1.5500 | - | Sideways | Bearish | ||
| UBS FX Research Team | - | 1.6200 | 1.5600 | - | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| UniCredit Research | - | 1.6300 | 1.6500 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 1.5910 | 1.5770 | 1.5400 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Westpac Institutional Bank Team | - | 1.5700 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| Yohay Elam | 1.6000 | 1.5800 | 1.5700 | Sideways | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Average | 1.5993 | 1.5947 | 1.5902 | Sideways | Sideways | Sideways | ||
The bearishness is in favor as far as 1.6180 holds with a daily closing.
As long as the Bank of England continues to sit on the QE sidelines, the GBP should remain as a viable alternative to other currencies whose central banks go full speed ahead with more easing.
The appointment of Mark Carney certainly gave a boost to the pound. Even if more QE is announced, the impact will likely be short-lived.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Cable has traded in a narrow range for much of last week, bouncing around the psychological 1.60 price point, whilst still retaining a bias to the long side. And provided we see a hold above this price point then expect to see cable move to re-test the 1.6173 price area of early October before continuing to test the 1.63 region of mid September in due course.