Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
Agree or disagree? Comments? Your own forecast? Post your thoughts in the Forecasts discussion group!
| GBPUSD | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Nov 16 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 1.5800 | 1.6000 | 1.5600 | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| Anna Coulling | 1.5741 | 1.5923 | 1.6211 | Bearish | Sideways | Bullish | ||
| ANZ FX Strategy Team | - | - | 1.6300 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| BBVA Bancomer Team | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Sideways | - | ||
| BoA FX, Rates and Commodities Team | - | - | 1.5800 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Capital Economics Research Team | - | 1.5500 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 1.5700 | 1.5840 | 1.6200 | Bearish | Sideways | Bullish | ||
| Danske Research EmergingMarkets Team | - | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| GFM Research Private Limited | 1.5740 | 1.5980 | 1.6220 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research | - | - | 1.5200 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Gonçalo Moreira, CMT | 1.5950 | 1.6100 | 1.5800 | Bullish | Bullish | Sideways | ||
| Gus Farrow | 1.5935 | 1.6070 | 1.5750 | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| HSBC Global Research Team | - | - | 1.5900 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| ICN.com analysis team | 1.5660 | 1.5545 | 1.5360 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Ilian Yotov | 1.5900 | 1.6000 | 1.5750 | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| ING Global Economics Team | - | 1.5600 | 1.5500 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy | - | - | 1.6100 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Joshua Martinez | 1.6000 | 1.6200 | 1.6400 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Luc Luyet, CMT, CIIA | 1.5800 | 1.5800 | 1.6000 | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 1.5990 | 1.6000 | 1.6100 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| NAB Global Markets Research | - | - | 1.6300 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Nomura FX Research & Strategy | 1.5590 | - | - | Bearish | - | - | ||
| Rabobank Financial Markets Research Team | - | 1.6100 | 1.6300 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBC Economic Research Team | - | 1.6500 | 1.6200 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBS Team | - | 1.5800 | 1.5600 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Richard C. Lee | 1.6000 | 1.6125 | 1.6271 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Scotiabank FX Strategy Team | - | - | 1.6200 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Tad DeVan | 1.5750 | 1.5600 | 1.5268 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| TD Securities Research Team | - | - | 1.5500 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| UBS FX Research Team | - | 1.6200 | 1.5600 | - | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| UniCredit Research | - | 1.6300 | 1.6500 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 1.5770 | 1.5560 | 1.5400 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Westpac Institutional Bank Team | - | 1.5700 | - | - | Bearish | - | ||
| Yohay Elam | 1.5800 | 1.5700 | 1.5700 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Average | 1.5820 | 1.5918 | 1.5898 | Bearish | Sideways | Sideways | ||
The pair has achieved the first daily closing below SMA 200 for the first time since August, 20 confirming the bearish trend.
Dovish Bank of England outlook on the economy coupled with uncertainty about Greece and the U.S. "fiscal cliff" could continue to weign on the GBP.
GBPUSD daily time frame is sitting on a level of support. Expecting bullish rally.
Current inflation in the UK is likely to keep any monetary expansion at bay for the short term. Expectations will shift towards further asset purchases in 2013. Until then, pound momentum will mount against the US dollar.
The GBPUSD remains in a large trading range and is slowly moving bearish. I anticipate this trend to continue overall over the next week, month and quarter.
Recent data shows that the UK had a one time Olympic leap in Q3 and likely entered a "triple dip" recession in Q4.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Cable too continues to move strongly lower following the failure at the 1.60 level and is now testing support in the 1.5870 area. Failure here will see a deeper move back to test the 1.57 price region which is likely to provide a solid base for a recovery in due course.