Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
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| EURUSD | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Sep 21 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 1.3100 | 1.3300 | 1.2700 | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| Alberto Muñoz,PhD | 1.2900 | 1.3380 | 1.3500 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Anna Coulling | 1.3148 | 1.2814 | 1.2478 | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| BoA FX, Rates and Commodities Team | - | 1.1500 | 1.1800 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 1.3200 | 1.2870 | 1.3000 | Bullish | Bearish | Sideways | ||
| Danske Research Team | - | 1.3300 | 1.3500 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| DBS Group Research | - | - | 1.2800 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Derek Frey, CTA | 1.2900 | 1.2600 | 1.3100 | Bearish | Bearish | Sideways | ||
| Esteban Mora | 1.3100 | 1.3250 | 1.3500 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| GFM Research Private Limited | 1.2835 | 1.3350 | 1.3490 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Gonçalo Moreira, CMT | 1.2820 | 1.3300 | 1.3500 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Gregor Horvat | 1.3250 | 1.3400 | 1.3400 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Hugo Venter | 1.2950 | 1.2000 | 1.1500 | Sideways | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Ilian Yotov | 1.2750 | 1.2500 | 1.2000 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy | - | 1.2400 | 1.2400 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 1.3200 | 1.3100 | 1.2750 | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| NAB Global Markets Research | 1.2600 | - | 1.3300 | Bearish | - | Bullish | ||
| Rabobank Financial Markets Research Team | - | 1.2600 | 1.2800 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| RBC Economic Research Team | - | 1.2000 | 1.1900 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| RBS Team | - | - | 1.2000 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Scotiabank FX Strategy Team | - | 1.2100 | 1.2300 | - | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| TD Securities Research Team | - | 1.3300 | 1.2500 | - | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| UBS FX Research Team | - | 1.3000 | 1.2500 | - | Sideways | Bearish | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 1.3100 | 1.2745 | 1.2440 | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Westpac Institutional Bank Team | - | 1.3300 | - | - | Bullish | - | ||
| Yohay Elam | 1.3100 | 1.2800 | 1.3200 | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Average | 1.2997 | 1.2822 | 1.2734 | Sideways | Bearish | Bearish | ||
Daily chart is clearly bullish, so intra-day set-backs are considered as temporary pull-backs within ongoing trend towards 1.3400-1.3500.
Our analysis expects that the Euro may have completed a deep second wave correction and is within the first impulse within a new third wave lower. This third wave should see the pair move lower with strong momentum. The sideways movement expected over the next week is due to the expected second wave correction that should follow the first wave within the larger third wave.
As euro-area growth remains nowhere to be seen and with Spain not in a hurry to ask for a bailout, the EUR is running out of "good" news and should resume its downtrend.
After some hangover from QE3, the euro could resume rises on market positive news from Greece and Spain.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Having rushed to a high of 1.3171 the eurodollar is now in a modest pullback phase in the short term as euro bulls take their profits following the long trend run up from late August. With a pivot high now in place on the daily chart we can expect to see this minor correction continue, possible even to test the 1.28 level before the longer term upwards trend resumes with further strength for the euro in the medium term.