Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
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| EURUSD | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Jul 20 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 1.2100 | 1.2300 | 1.2500 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 1.2080 | 1.2300 | 1.2480 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Derek Frey, CTA | 1.2400 | 1.2500 | 1.2750 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Gavin Grier-Rees | 1.1750 | 1.0750 | 0.9750 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Gonçalo Moreira, CMT | 1.2380 | 1.2900 | 1.2900 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Hugo Venter | 1.2120 | 1.2000 | 1.1500 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| ICN.com analysis team | 1.2150 | 1.2000 | 1.2850 | Sideways | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Ilian Yotov | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Joshua Martinez | 1.2414 | 1.2823 | 1.3200 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Malik Khan | 1.2150 | 1.2400 | 1.1880 | Sideways | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 1.2000 | 1.2500 | 1.2000 | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 1.2060 | 1.1870 | 1.1600 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Yohay Elam | 1.2100 | 1.1900 | 1.2400 | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| Average | 1.2131 | 1.2173 | 1.2139 | Bearish | Sideways | Sideways | ||
Summer Dolldrums continue
The European economy continues to split in two: German (and core) yields are now negative for 2 year money, whilst 10-year Spanish bond yields are again above 7.00%. This will inevitable fracture the single currency. The only question is 'when?' - can it last the summer perhaps?
Our analysis indicates that the consolidation we expected last week is possibly now complete and that the Euro is very likely within the early stages of a new impulse to take it lower over the next week before entering a larger degree consolidation period.
Breaching 1.2445 would delay the bearishness
After a long-due price correction, it would not be surprising to see the EUR resuming its downtrend against the USD, including a potential revisit of its fair value range $1.15-$1.20 in the not too distant future.
I have the EURUSD weekly Fibonacci D extension being hit and I am expecting the market to have a huge bullish pull back.
Europe has kicked the can down the road and we will soon see these issues will be rising again and this time, the ECB ammunition chest will be a lot emptier than it is now.
The euro will likely underperform, even if the dollar isn't the king anymore.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Weak Eurozone data is likely to weigh on the Euro, while the full strength of the US dollar is yet to be revealed, but not necessarily next week.