Expectations of a stronger opening in the equity markets is helping to drive the U.S. Dollar lower overnight. News that the CIT Group will not have to declare bankruptcy and calls for continuing bullish earnings momentum, is helping to increase demand for higher risk, higher yielding assets.
August Gold is surging to the upside as the Dollar is losing support. Although it is not apparent at this time in the economic reports, traders are trying to get an edge on the possibility that a recovery in the global economy will lead to an inflationary scenario.
The weaker Dollar along with calls for an improvement in the global economy is leading some energy traders to believe that demand may soon pick-up for crude oil and other energy related products. Although inventories remain high especially in gasoline, look for a higher opening in crude oil today.
The weaker Dollar is helping to support the Softs Complex overnight. September Cocoa, Coffee and December Cotton traders are driving these markets higher on expectations that an economic recovery will lead to increased demand for these products.
November Soybeans and December Corn withheld attempts to drive these markets through the recent lows last week and are now starting to show signs of short-covering. Fundamentally these markets remain weak because better-than-expected weather conditions helped improve the size of the crop. Since it looks as if sellers are willing to step aside at current levels, look for a short-covering rally over the near-term to set up another selling opportunity.
September Treasury Bonds and Notes are under pressure this morning as demand for higher risk assets is helping to drive money out of the fixed-income sector. Interest rates may slowly start to climb if traders start to factor in inflation. Losses may be limited because Tuesday and Wednesday Bernanke is scheduled to testify before Congress. He may provide commentary on the Fed’s exit strategy.
