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Forex Technical Report

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Forex Recap 062909

Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:57 GMT
by Forex Hound Analysis Team

ForexHound.com

Forex trading was less volatile than normal and volume was light on Monday.  Traders may be taking or early vacation ahead of this Friday’s U.S. market holiday, or they may be standing aside until Thursday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report.  It’s tough to say why traders were absent, but it is highly unlikely that they will take the early part of the week off then show up for the report.  Trading may be thin and lifeless all week.

Euro traders have to deal with a European Central Bank meeting on July 2nd.  Last year, the ECB was the last central bank to actually hike interest rates.  This triggered a move to the 1.60 area right before the bottom fell out.  What a difference a year makes!  The ECB has room to cut interest rates if necessary but most traders believe they will leave rates unchanged to allow the economy to begin its recovery.  Traders are concerned about the price level of the Euro.  Traders feel a move above 1.42 will trigger action by the ECB to push the Euro lower.  This is because an expensive Euro will hurt Euro Zone exports.

British Pound traders had no fresh news to which to react.  Traders seem content that the Bank of England’s actions the past few months will be enough to stimulate the economy.  Technically, 1.6600 seems to be a barrier that bullish traders have to overcome.  No one seems willing to print the high tick but no one is selling aggressively either.

Despite higher crude oil prices, the USD CAD climbed modestly higher on Monday.  Traders were reluctant to buy the Canadian Dollar ahead of key economic reports this week.  The threat of some sort of intervention by the Bank of Canada is also helping to keep traders on the sidelines.  Many traders feel the BoC is not comfortable with the rapid rise the Canadian Dollar saw over the past few months.  They feel that the BoC will take action to push the currency lower if there is evidence that the high priced currency is hurting Canadian exports.

By ForexHound.com the portal for Analysis, Education and exclusive timely market Gann Analysis

Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Published on  Tue, Jun 30 2009, 11:00 GMT