The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar this morning despite fears that the U.S. recession will be longer and deeper than originally forecast.  Lower equity markets overnight in Europe and Asia are sending signals that global traders are become more risk averse at this time and seeking the safety of the U.S. treasury markets.  Investors are expressing their concerns about the weakening global economy and are once again favoring the U.S. Dollar as their safe haven.  Despite bearish corporate news from the U.S., the Euro is under pressure on the perception that the U.S. economy is closer to a bottom than the Euro Zone.

 

Technically, the EUR USD is locked in a triangle position with a bias to the downside.  Longer-term this pair is still making lower tops.  Short-term the triangle has been formed because of a pair of lower tops and higher bottoms.  The only thing that can change the pattern and the trend to up will be a breakout above one or both swing tops at 1.3116 and 1.3296.  On the downside, the downtrend will resume on moves through 1.2525 and 1.2339.  The pair of ranges that have been established have created pivot prices at 1.2813 and 1.2821.  Currently the market is under this pivot zone which is a sign of weakness and lower prices to follow.  Use this pivot zone as an early indicator of a possible change in trend to the upside.  Otherwise continue to look for more downside pressure.