EUR/USD
Monitor the hourly base formation.
EUR/USD has broken its support at 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low) and its medium-term rising trendline (linking July 2012 low with November 2012 low). Monitor the hourly base formation between 1.3145 (22/02/2013 low) and 1.3245 (22/02/2013 high). Another resistance can be found at 1.3329 (19/02/2013 low).
In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. Still, the recent break of the support at 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low) opens the way for a decline towards the key support 1.2998 (04/01/2013 low).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
The key support at 1.5235 has been broken.
GBP/USD closed last Friday below its strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low). It has also moved below its recent low at 1.5132 (21/02/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.5321 (22/02/2013 high) and 1.5550 (15/02/2013 high). A support is given by the psychological support at 1.50000.
In the longer-term, a decisive break of the horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) would call for a medium-term decline towards 1.4231 (20/05/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Challenging the strong resistance at 94.99.
USD/JPY has broken out of its horizontal range defined by the support at 92.23 (15/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 94.46 (11/02/2013 high). However, it has, thus far, failed to move above the strong resistance at 94.99. Hourly supports are at 93.86 (intraday low) and 93.42 (22/02/2013 high).
USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high) has almost been reached. Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).
Long 3 at 94.52, Objs: 95.27/99.69/103.48, Stop: 93.77 (Entered: 2013-02-25).
USD/CHF
Approaching a key resistance area.
USD/CHF is approaching the resistance area implied by the high of the declining channel and 0.9389 (18/01/2013 high). Supports can be found at 0.9276 (intraday low) and 0.9185 (20/02/2013 low).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Challenging a key resistance area.
USD/CAD is challenging the key resistance defined by the high of the declining channel and 1.0250. An hourly support can be found at 1.0160 (22/02/2013 low). Another support is at 1.0102 (19/02/2013 low).
We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Moving sideways.
AUD/USD is moving sideways since 7 February. The support at 1.0227 (12/02/2013 low) has successfully been tested. However, the recent bounce has failed to invalidate the recent succession of lower highs. Resistances can be found at 1.0341 (22/02/2013 high) and 1.0375 (15/02/2013 high).
AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Weakening.
GBP/JPY has broken its support at 142.77, suggesting a deeper correction. A key support is at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low). Hourly support is at 141.34 (21/02/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 143.58 (intraday high) and 144.74 (20/02/2013 high).
GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely as long as the key support at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low) holds.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Corrective phase underway.
EUR/JPY is moving in a short-term declining channel. A key support is at 121.22. An hourly resistance can be found at 125.97 (14/02/2013 high), whereas an hourly support is at 122.26 (21/02/2013 low).
EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Fading close to its previous highs.
EUR/GBP has moved above its resistance at 0.8717 but has failed to close, on a daily basis, above it. Given the general overbought conditions, short-term caution is required. Monitor the hourly horizontal range given by the support at 0.8601 (19/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 0.8765 (20/02/2013 high).
From a longer-term perspective, a decisive break of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) would open the way for further medium-strength towards the resistance at 0.9084 (01/07/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Testing the low of its consolidation phase.
EUR/CHF is moving within a short-term falling channel. Monitor the support at 1.2257 05/02/2013 low) as a successful test would strengthen our scenario of a base formation. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2307 (22/02/2013 high) and 1.2387 (13/02/2013 high).
We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).
GOLD
Bouncing.
Gold continues to bounce. Hourly resistances can be found at 1598 (15/02/2013 low) and 1619 (18/02/2013 high). A support is at 1548 (28/06/2012 low). • Given the strong support at 1523 and the general oversold conditions, a weakening bearish momentum is expected.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523 (29/12/2011 low). A strong resistance area can be found between 1791(29/02/2012 high) and 1803 (08/11/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Support at 28.45 intact thus far.
Silver has thus far successfully tested the support at 28.45. Resistances for a bounce are given by 29.24 (previous support) and 29.65 (20/02/2013 high).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
