EUR/USD
The support at 1.3257 has been broken.
EUR/USD has broken the support at 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low) and its rising trendline. Monitor the test of the support at 1.3187 (50% retracement) as the next support would be at 1.2998 (04/01/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3291 (21/01/2013 high) and 1.3434 (20/02/2013 low).
In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. Still, the recent break of the support at 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low) opens the way for a move towards the key support 1.2998 (04/01/2013 low).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Challenging the key support at 1.5235.
GBP/USD is challenging its strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low). Hourly resistances for a bounce can be found at 1.5318 (intraday high) and 1.5451 (20/02/2013 high). Yesterday's intraday bullish reversal has created a support at 1.5132.
In the longer-term, GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high). A decisive break to the downside would call for a mediumterm decline towards 1.4231 (20/05/2012 low).
Buy stop 3 at 94.52, Objs: 95.27/99.69/103.48, Stop: 93.77.
USD/JPY
Consolidating.
USD/JPY remains in a horizontal range between the support at 92.23 (15/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 94.46 (11/02/2013 high). A break to the upside is needed to resume the underlying uptrend.
USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high) has almost been reached. Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).
Buy stop 3 at 94.52, Objs: 95.27/99.69/103.48, Stop: 93.77.
USD/CHF
Approaching a key resistance area.
USD/CHF continues to rise. Prices are now close to the resistance area implied by the high of the declining channel and 0.9383 (07/12/2012 high). Supports can be found at 0.9266 (intraday low) and 0.9185 (20/02/2013 low).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Approaching a key resistance area.
USD/CAD is approaching the key resistance defined by the high of the declining channel and 1.0250. An hourly support can be found at 1.0160 (intraday low). Another support is at 1.0102 (19/02/2013 low).
We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance area can be found between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Successful test of the support at 1.0227.
AUD/USD is moving sideways since 7 February. The support at 1.0227 (12/02/2013 low) has successfully been tested. A key resistance is at 1.0375 (15/02/2013 high). An hourly support can be found at 1.0271 (intraday low).
AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Challenging the support at 141.90.
GBP/JPY has broken its support at 142.77, suggesting a deeper correction. The support at 141.90 is challenged. A key support is at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 143.58 (intraday high) and 144.74 (20/02/2013 high).
GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely. A key support is at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Corrective phase underway.
EUR/JPY is moving in a short-term declining channel. A key support is at 121.22. Hourly resistances can be found at 124.71 (21/02/2013 high) and 125.97 (14/02/2013 high).
EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Fading close to its previous highs.
EUR/GBP has moved above its resistance at 0.8717 but has failed to close, on a daily basis, above it. Given the general overbought conditions, short-term caution is required. Hourly supports are given by the short-term rising trendline and 0.8572 (13/02/2013 low).
From a longer-term perspective, a decisive break of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) would open the way for further medium-strength towards the resistance at 0.9084 (01/07/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Consolidating within its declining channel.
EUR/CHF is moving within a short-term falling channel. We view the support at 1.2257 as the low of a base formation. Resistances can be found at 1.2387 (13/02/2013 high) and 1.2415 (01/02/2013 high).
We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).
GOLD
Bouncing.
Gold bounced yesterday. Hourly resistances can be found at 1601 (19/02/2013 low) and 1619 (18/02/2013 high). A support is at 1548 (28/06/2012 low).
Given the strong support at 1523 and the general oversold conditions, a weakening bearish momentum is expected.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523 (29/12/2011 low). A strong resistance area can be found between 1791(29/02/2012 high) and 1803 (08/11/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Support at 28.45 intact thus far.
Silver has broken its key support at 29.24 (04/01/2013 low). Monitor the test of the support at 28.45. Hourly resistances can be found at 29.24 (previous support) and 29.65 (20/02/2013 high).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
