EUR/USD

EURUSD

Moving sideways.

  • EUR/USD is moving sideways close to its strong support at 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low). A break of the hourly resistance at 1.3393 (15/02/2013 high) would validate an hourly bullish base formation. Another resistance can be found at 1.3520 (13/02/2013 high).

  • In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) is favoured as long as the rising channel starting from 1.2043 is intact.

Buy stop 3 at 1.3395, Objs: 1.3492/1.3695/1.3985, Stop: 1.3298


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Remaining weak thus far.

  • GBP/USD continues to move lower. Next supports can be found at 1.5394 (12/07/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.5550 (15/02/2013 high) and 1.5689 (13/02/2013 high).

  • The medium-term double-top (from 1.5829 to 1.6302) implies a downside risk at 1.5356.

  • In the longer-term, GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Consolidating.

  • USD/JPY is moving in a horizontal range between the support at 92.23 (15/02/2013 low) and 94.46 (11/02/2013 high). A break to the upside is needed to resume the underlying uptrend. An hourly support is at 93.32 (intraday low).

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high) has almost been reached. Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Buy stop 3 at 94.52, Objs: 95.76/99.69/103.48, Stop: 93.28


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Grinding higher.

  • USD/CHF continues to bounce from the low of its declining channel. Hourly supports are at 0.9202 (15/02/2013 low) and 0.9154 (08/02/2013 low). A resistance can be found at 0.9293 (28/01/2013 high).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

Bullish breakout at 1.0100.

  • USD/CAD has broken its resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is given by the declining channel. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0058 (18/02/2013 low) and 1.0000 (14/02/2013 low).

  • The break of the resistance at 1.0100 has stopped our short strategy.

  • We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.

Our strategy has been stopped.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Moving sideways.

  • AUD/USD is moving sideways since 7 February. Monitor the support at 1.0227 (12/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 1.0375 (15/02/2013 high). As long as this resistance holds, we favour a decline towards 1.0149. An hourly support can be found at 1.0275 (18/02/2013 low).

  • AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

The bounce is fading.

  • GBP/JPY has sharply bounced from its low at 142.77. Monitor the hourly resistances at 145.90 (18/02/2013 high) and 146.61 (13/02/2013 high).

  • The rising channel favours a bullish bias.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely. A key support is at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Corrective phase underway.

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a short-term declining channel. Resistances are given by 125.97 (14/02/2013 high, see also the high of the declining channel) and 127.71 (06/02/2013 high). A support is at 122.90 (15/02/2013 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Pausing.

  • EUR/GBP is moving sideways between its hourly support at 0.8572 (13/02/2013 low) and its resistance at 0.8687 (05/02/2013 high). Another resistance is at 0.8717 (01/02/2013 high), whereas another support can be found at 0.8441.

  • From a longer-term perspective, the possible false breakout out of the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) and the general overbought conditions call for caution.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Consolidating with declining channel.

  • EUR/CHF is moving within a short-term falling channel. We view the support at 1.2257 as the low of a base formation. Resistances can be found at 1.2387 (13/02/2013 high) and 1.2415 (01/02/2013 high).

  • We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)


GOLD

Gold

Moving within its declining channel.

  • Gold has broken to the downside out of its horizontal range between 1626 (04/01/2013 low) and 1695 (02/01/2013 high). The implied downside risk is 1560. Resistances for a bounce can be found at 1626 (broken support acting as a resistance) and 1654 (13/02/2013 high). A support lies at 1590 (15/08/2012 low).

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. A strong resistance area can be found between 1791(29/02/2012 high) and 1803 (08/11/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Approaching the support at 29.24.

  • Silver has broken the support at 30.22 (11/01/2013 low), opening the way for a test of its key support at 29.24 (04/01/2013 low). Resistances can be found at 30.54 and 31.23 (13/02/2013 high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.