EUR/USD

EURUSD

Monitor the resistance at 1.3429.

  • EUR/USD is trying to make a short-term base formation. A break of the resistance at 1.3429 (08/02/2013 high) would validate a short-term bullish head and shoulders. Another resistance is at 1.3494 (08/02/2013 high). Supports can be found at 1.3325 (11/02/2013 low) and 1.3257 (16/01/2013 low).

  • In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) remains likely. A strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Buy stop 3 at 1.3433, Objs: 1.3517/1.3695/1.3988, Stop: 1.3349


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Challenging the recent lows.

  • GBP/USD has completely retraced its recent bounce. It is now challenging the support implied by its previous low at 1.5631 (05/02/2013 low). Another support can be found at 1.5491 (02/08/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.5681 (intraday high) and 1.5845 (08/02/2013 high).

  • The medium-term double-top (from 1.5829 to 1.6302) implies a downside risk at 1.5356.

  • In the longer-term, GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Challenging the strong resistance at 94.99.

  • USD/JPY rose yesterday and made new highs. Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Hourly supports can be found at 93.19 (intraday low) and 91.98 (05/02/2013 low).

  • We have raised our stop-loss as our last objective at 94.48 has almost been reached.

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Long 1 at 88.78, Obj: 94.48, Stop: 93.86 (Entered: 2013-01-22)


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Bouncing within its declining channel.

  • USD/CHF has bounced from the support implied by the low of its declining channel. Resistances to monitor are given by 0.9227 (30/01/2013 high) and 0.9383 (07/12/2012 high). A break of the hourly support at 0.9154 (08/02/2013 low) would suggest that the shortterm bounce is over.

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

Rising back toward its recent highs.

  • USD/CAD is moving toward its resistance at 1.0100. However, yesterday's weak daily close suggests that selling pressure is still present. Hourly supports are at 1.0041 (intraday low) and 1.0009.

  • We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term. With this in mind, tactical short positioning would be attempted on a return to the resistance of this larger daily falling channel.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Declining towards the low of its mediumterm horizontal range.

  • AUD/USD continues to look weak after breaking under the key support at 1.0329. We now see scope for a return to the base of the recent longer-term range at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) over the coming days. Resistances can be found at 1.0294 (intraday high) and 1.0348 (08/02/2013 high, see also declining trendline).

  • AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

Consolidating.

  • GBP/JPY is consolidating between the support at 144.85 (05/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 147.98 (07/02/2013 high). While above 144.85, the structure remains bullish for our next targets at 149.94 and 159.40.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely.

Long 2 at 144.32, Objs: 149.94/159.40, Stop: 144.32 (Entered: 2013-01-31)


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

In the midst of a corrective phase.

  • EUR/JPY is in a short-term corrective phase after failing to break the resistance at 127.92. Supports are given by 123.43 (08/02/2013 low) and 121.22 (29/01/2013 low, see also rising trendline from 100.33).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Bouncing.

  • EUR/GBP has bounced close to the support 0.8441 (22/01/2013 high). Hourly resistance at 0.8554 (31/01/2013 low) has been breached. Another resistance is given by the declining trendline (see also 61.8% retracement at 0.8595). A key support is at 0.8364 (22/01/2013 low).

  • From a longer-term perspective, the possible false breakout out of the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) and the general overbought conditions call for caution.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Consolidation favoured to resolve higher.

  • EUR/CHF is moving within a short-term falling channel. Monitor the support at 1.2257 (05/02/2013 low) as a potential short-term base formation could be underway. Resistances can be found at 1.2369 (06/02/2013 high) and 1.2415 (01/02/2013 high, see also high of the short-term falling channel).

  • We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)


GOLD

Gold

Weakening within its horizontal range.

  • Gold has broken the support at 1654 (11/01/2013 low), which opens the way for a test of the low of its horizontal range between 1626 (04/01/2013 low) and 1696 (17/01/2013 high). Hourly resistance can be found at 1656 (intraday low).

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Weakening.

  • Silver continues to weaken. The hourly support at 31.26 (30/01/2013 low) has been broken and the one at 30.74 (28/01/2013 low) is challenged. Another support is at 30.22 (11/01/2013 low, see also the low of the short-term declining channel). Hourly resistances can be found at 31.25 (intraday high) and 31.69 (08/02/2013 high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.