EUR/USD
Break under 1.3459 suggests a larger corrective phase.
EUR/USD has failed to hold over 1.3459. This now suggests scope for a larger corrective phase lower.
We would need to see a break under 1.3127 to warn that the rising trend from 1.2662 is over. Also support would be expected close to rising trendline resistance from 1.2662, currently near 1.3220.
In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) remains possible. A strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Finds initial demand close to long-term trend-line support.
GBP/USD has managed to find initial demand close to long-term trend-line support from 1.3503. Scope is seen for a continuation of this recovery, towards the 200 day moving average, where a lower high may then form for a fresh swing to the downside.
We do however keep in mind that GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).
Short 2 at 1.5822, Objs: 1.5406/1.5272, Stop: 1.5822 (Entered: 2013-01-31)
USD/JPY
Correcting lower in the short-term.
USD/JPY appears to be in the midst of a corrective phase after meeting and slightly exceeding the target of the daily inverted head and shoulders pattern that was activated after the break over 84.18.
Longer-term structure remains bullish with scope for a higher low to form closer to the 90.00 level for a fresh swing higher.
Only a push back under 84.18 would suggest an end to the rising trend that we have witnessed thus far.
Long 1 at 88.78, Obj: 94.48, Stop: 90.19 (Entered: 2013-01-22)
USD/CHF
Continues short-term rise within a daily falling channel.
USD/CHF has continued its recovery after testing the base of a falling daily channel. Scope is now seen for a further rise towards the resistance of the same structure, currently at 0.9370, where potential exists for a lower high to form.
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Rests in neutral territory close to the 200 day moving average.
USD/CAD has not gained much momentum after breaking under the 200 day moving average. Instead price remains close to this moving average.
We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term. With this in mind tactical short positioning would be attempted on a return to the resistance of the this larger daily falling channel.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Recent break under 1.0329 suggests scope for further downside.
AUD/USD continues to look weak after breaking under the key 1.0345 - 1.0329 zone. We now see scope for a return to the base of the recent longer-term range at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) over the coming days. A break over 1.0477 (30/01/2013 high) would be required to negate this view.
AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Consolidates close to the 145.00 level.
GBP/JPY is consolidating just above the 145.00 level. In doing so it has broken under short-term trend-line support, suggesting scope for a larger correction from the current region. However, while above 144.81 the structure remains bullish for our next targets at 149.94 and 159.40.
Longer-term the structure remains strongly bullish with our bias to buy on sizeable pullbacks.
Long 2 at 144.32, Objs: 149.94/159.40, Stop: 144.32 (Entered: 2013-01-31).
EUR/JPY
In the midst of a corrective phase.
EUR/JPY remains in the midst of a short-term corrective phase. However, longer-term, we note the break over strong resistance at 123.33, suggesting scope for a return towards 139.22 over the coming weeks and months.
A break under 1.2350 would suggest scope for a move back down towards the 121.22 level. It should also be noted that the pair is heavily overbought exhibiting multiple RSI bearish divergences, suggesting caution should be taken when entering into long positions in this pair.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
In the midst of a correction.
EUR/GBP continues to correct lower after breaking under 0.8555 (05/02/2013 low). Scope is now seen for further weakness to test the 0.8364 level over the coming days.
Also from a longer-term perspective, the strong resistance area between 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high) and the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) and the general overbought conditions suggest limited mediumterm upside potential.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Consolidation favoured to resolve higher.
EUR/CHF has has failed to clear the resistance of an hourly falling channel. Instead, we are now seeing a consolidation phase in the hourly time frame. This is favoured to break over channel resistance for a further test of the larger falling channel's resistance which currently rests near 1.2450.
We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)
GOLD
Sideways activity continues.
Gold continues to stay in a tight trading range which has been maintained for a week now. This movement is itself contained by a larger trading range defined by 1626 and 1695 (02/01/2013 high, see also high of the declining channel). An hourly support is at 1654 (11/01/2013 low).
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Remains rangebound.
Silver has thus far failed to challenge the resistance area between 32.48 (23/01/2013 high) and 32.54 (18/12/2012 high), posting a potential lower high. The support at 31.26 (30/01/2013 low) is challenged. Other supports can be found at 30.74 (28/01/2013 low) and 30.22 (11/01/2013 low).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
