EUR/USD

EURUSD

In the midst of a correction lower.

  • EUR/USD continues to correct lower with the 1.3414 level (29/01/2013 low) now key to further gains. Hourly supports can be found near 1.3482 (30/01/2013 low).

  • Scope is seen for a higher low ahead of 1.3257 for a fresh swing higher towards 1.3750 initially and then potentially 1.4000.

  • The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying long-term trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) is expected. A strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Within the midst of a corrective phase.

  • GBP/USD's minor recovery stalled last Friday at 1.5879, followed by a sharp swing lower meeting our first objective at 1.5736. We have thus moved our stop to entry.

  • The failure to break under 1.5694 now suggests scope for a return towards 1.5879 and then on towards 1.6000, suggesting that we are in the midst of a corrective phase. Back under 1.5682 is required to negate this scenario. However, we remain bearish medium-term in this pair.

  • GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Short 2 at 1.5822, Objs: 1.5406/1.5272, Stop: 1.5822 (Entered: 2013-01-31)


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Continuing to grind higher.

  • USD/JPY is making higher highs confirming the strong underlying uptrend. Now above the resistance at 92.89 (04/06/2010 high), a further swing higher to 94.99 (04/05/2010 high) is favoured. An hourly support is at 91.79 (intraday low). Another support can be found at 90.75 (31/01/2013 low).

  • We will keep our stop at 90.19 for now.

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Long 1 at 88.78, Obj: 94.48, Stop: 90.19 (Entered: 2013-01-22)


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Testing the key support at 0.9084/0.9079.

  • USD/CHF is testing the low of its horizontal range between 0.9079 and 0.9383. A decisive break of this support would open the way for a move towards the strong support at 0.8931, whereas a break of the hourly resistance at 0.9121 (31/01/2013 high) is needed to improve the short-term outlook. Another resistance is at 0.9227 (30/01/2013 high).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

Weakening.

  • USD/CAD has failed to break decisively above its key resistance at 1.0057 (16/11/2012 high). The break of the hourly support at 1.0008 (29/01/2013 low) confirms a corrective phase. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9947 (18/01/2013 high) and 0.9904 (23/01/2013 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.0053 (30/01/2013 high) and 1.0100 (25/01/2013 high).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

A re-test of 1.0361 favoured while under 1.0477.

  • AUD/USD continues to grind lower and is favoured to re-test the 1.0361 low while under 1.0477. A key support can be found at 1.0329 (25/12/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.0451 (31/01/2013 high) and 1.0477 (29/01/2013 high).

  • AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

Tests short-term uptrend.

  • GBP/JPY has broken to the upside out of its horizontal range defined by 139.41 and 144.81 (14/01/2013 high), resuming the underlying uptrend. The break over resistance at 145.98 (26/04/2010 high) now suggests a challenge of 150.84 (01/01/2012 high). Hourly supports are at 144.83 (intraday low) and 143.45 (31/01/2013 low). We note the recent challenge of shortterm support which need to be maintained to suggest further gains.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is expected.

Long 2 at 144.32, Objs: 149.94/159.40, Stop: 144.32 (Entered: 2013-01-31)


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

The strong resistance at 123.33 has been broken.

  • EUR/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 123.33 and is now approaching the one at 127.92 (05/04/2010 high). An hourly support can be found at 122.99 (31/01/2013 low). A key support is at 121.22 (29/01/2013 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Correction continues after breaking under channel resistance.

  • EUR/GBP broke over rising hourly channel resistance on Friday from where a bout of weakness has been initiated. Given the subsequent break under channel support, scope is seen for a substantial corrective downswing.

  • The strong resistance area between 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high) and the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) and the general overbought conditions suggest a limited medium-term upside potential.

Our position was stopped.


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Consolidating within a falling channel.

  • EUR/CHF has failed to make a daily close above its strong resistance area between 1.2474 (19/10/2011 high) and 1.25 (psychological threshold). A short-term corrective phase is likely underway. Hourly resistances are at 1.2408 (intraday high) and 1.2463 (30/01/2013 high).

  • We favour further medium-term upside for the EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)


GOLD

Gold

Moving sideways.

  • Gold is still moving within its horizontal range defined by 1626 and 1695 (02/01/2013 high, see also high of the declining channel). An hourly support is at 1654 (11/01/2013 low).

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Moving sideways.

  • Silver has thus far failed to challenge the resistance area between 32.48 (23/01/2013 high) and 32.54 (18/12/2012 high), posting a potential lower high. The support at 31.26 (30/01/2013 low) is challenged. Other supports can be found at 30.74 (28/01/2013 low) and 30.22 (11/01/2013 low).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.