EUR/USD

EURUSD

Challenging the strong resistance at 1.3487.

  • EUR/USD has breached its strong resistance at 1.3487 (see also psychological resistance at 1.3500). The short-term symmetrical triangle favours a move towards 1.3538. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3414 (29/01/2013 low) and 1.3350 (25/01/2013 low).

  • The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3172 suggest an improvement of the underlying long-term trend. A decisive break of the strong resistance 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) would open the way for a move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the rise from 1.2043 to 1.3172 and by the retracement to 1.2662). Another strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Medium-term double-top validated.

  • GBP/USD has broken its support area defined by 1.5829 (15/11/2012 low) and 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low). Further decline is expected as long as the resistance at 1.5893 (21/01/2013 high) holds. An hourly resistance is at 1.5827 (25/01/2013 high).

  • The break of the support at 1.5755 has validated a medium-term double-top (from 1.5829 to 1.6302). The implied downside risk is given by 1.5356.

  • GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Sell limit 3 at 1.5822, Objs: 1.5736/1.5406/1.5272, Stop: 1.5908


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Pausing.

  • USD/JPY is correcting after having broken its resistance at 90.25. The hourly support at 90.29 (25/01/2013 low) has, thus far, held. Monitor the test of the hourly resistance at 91.26 (28/01/2013 high). A move towards the resistance at 92.89 is still favoured. Another support can be found at 89.85 (intraday low).

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Long 2 at 88.78, Objs: 92.79/94.48, Stop: 88.78 (Entered: 2013-01-22)


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Weakening.

  • USD/CHF is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since 18 January. Supports can be found at 0.9194 (29/01/2013 low) and 0.9111 (11/01/2013 low). Hourly resistances are at 0.9293 (28/01/2013 high) and 0.9325 (24/01/2013 high).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

No follow-through above 1.0057 thus far.

  • USD/CAD has moved above its key resistance at 1.0057 (16/11/2012 high), but has failed, thus far, to hold above it. Monitor the resistance at 1.0100 (25/01/2013 high) and the hourly support at 0.9991 (intraday low).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Bouncing.

  • AUD/USD has bounced close to its support at 1.0395 (04/01/2013 low, see also rising trendline). The hourly resistance at 1.0469 (25/01/2013 high) has been breached. Another resistance is at 1.0504 (intraday low and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 22 January).

  • AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

Moving sideways.

  • GBP/JPY is moving sideways in the horizontal range defined by 139.41 and 144.81 (14/01/2013 high). A resistance is at 144.27. An hourly support can be found at 141.90.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is expected.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Challenging the strong resistance at 123.33.

  • EUR/JPY is challenging its strong resistance at 123.33. Another resistance is at 127.92 (04/05/2010 high). Supports can be found at 121.22 (29/01/2013 low) and 120.67 (25/01/2013 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Challenging a strong resistance area.

  • EUR/GBP is challenging the strong resistance area defined by 0.8506 and the long-term declining trendline (around 0.8630). An hourly support can be found at 0.8528 (29/01/2013 low). Another support is at 0.8463 (25/01/2013 low).

  • The strong resistance area between 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high) and the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one on July 2011) and the general overbought conditions suggest a limited medium-term upside potential.

Sell limit 3 at 0.8629, Objs: 0.8575/0.8421/0.8291, Stop: 0.8683


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Consolidating.

  • EUR/CHF has failed to make a daily close above its strong resistance area between 1.2474 (19/10/2011 high) and 1.25 (psychological threshold). A short-term corrective phase is likely underway. An hourly resistance is at 1.2515 (28/01/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 1.2381 (25/01/2013 low) and 1.2326 (23/01/2013 low).

  • We favour further medium-term upside for the EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)


GOLD

Gold

Bouncing from support at 1654.

  • Gold has failed to break its key resistance area between 1695 (02/01/2013 high) and 1703 (18/12/2012 high, see also high of the declining channel). The support at 1654 (11/01/2013 low) has thus far held. Monitor the hourly resistance at 1672 (25/01/2013 high).

  • Monitor the base formation defined by the support at 1626 and the resistance at 1695.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Bouncing.

  • Silver bounced yesterday. Monitor the resistance at 31.56. Another resistance can be found at 31.78 (25/01/2013 high). Hourly supports are at 30.74 (28/01/2013 low) and 30.22 (11/01/2013 low).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.