EUR/USD
Consolidating.
EUR/USD is moving sideways between the support at 1.3249 (11/01/2013 low) and the resistance at 1.3404. We favour a break to the upside. A key resistance is at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high).
The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3172 suggest an improvement of the underlying trend. Strong resistances can be found at 1.3487 and 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Challenging a strong support area.
GBP/USD is challenging its key support area between 1.5829 (15/11/2012 low) and 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low). In the short-term, the decline is overextended, suggesting that a rebound is likely. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.5893 (21/01/2013 high) would confirm this scenario.
GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).
Long 3 at 1.5842, Objs: 1.5953/1.6079/1.6290, Stop: 1.5731 (Entered: 2013-01-21)
USD/JPY
Approaching the recent low at 87.79.
USD/JPY has broken a short-term rising trendline but remains in a succession of higher lows and higher highs. Monitor the support at 87.79. Another support can be found at 86.83. An hourly resistance is at 88.99 (intraday high).
USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).
Long 3 at 88.78, Objs: 89.88/92.79/94.48, Stop: 87.68 (Entered: 2013-01-22)
USD/CHF
Weakening after the successful test of the resistance at 0.9383.
USD/CHF has thus far failed to break its key resistance at 0.9383 (see also the high of the declining channel on a daily chart). The hourly support at 0.9286 (16/01/2013 low) has been breached. Another support is at 0.9218 (intraday low). An hourly resistance is at 0.9347 (22/01/2013 high).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A medium-term decline towards the key support at 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) is expected.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Monitor the hourly horizontal range.
USD/CAD continues to move within its shortterm horizontal range between 0.9825 and 0.9973. The recent inability to move above its resistance at 0.9944 suggests a weakening momentum. Monitor the hourly support at 0.9909 (22/01/2013 low). Another support is at 0.9881.
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the next six months.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Rising back towards its strong resistance area.
AUD/USD has recently declined but has failed to break its short-term rising trendline. A new test of the strong resistance area between 1.0586 (12/12/2012 high) and 1.0625 (14/09/2012 high) is expected. An hourly support is at 1.0527 (intraday low).
AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Challenging the support at 139.41.
GBP/JPY has broken its support at 140.52 (16/01/2013 low) and is now challenging the one at 139.41 (09/01/2013 low). An hourly resistance can be found at 141.17 (intraday high).
We view the recent weakness as a short-term event. A key support is likely at 135.89 (21/12/2012 low).
GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is expected.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Correcting.
EUR/JPY is in a short-term corrective phase after having posted a marginal new high at 120.71. Supports are given by the steep rising trendline (around 117.0) and 116.47. An hourly resistance is at 118.71 (intraday high).
We view the recent weakness as a short-term event.
EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). The long-term technical configuration favours further strength towards the strong resistance at 123.33 (11/04/2011 high). A key support is at 110.63 (21/12/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Yesterday's volatile day calls for shortterm caution.
EUR/GBP had a volatile day yesterday. Given the overextended nature of the current rise and the proximity of the resistance at 0.8506, a shortterm phase of weakness could be underway. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8356 (18/01/2013 low) and 0.8326 (14/01/2013 high).
The breakout above the resistance at 0.8225 confirms the validity of the medium-term bullish head and shoulders. Further medium-term rise towards the strong resistance at 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high, see also long-term declining trendline linking the January 2009 peak with the one on July 2011) is expected.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Hourly horizontal range broken to the downside.
EUR/CHF has failed to make a daily close above its strong resistance area between 1.2474 (19/10/2011 high) and 1.25 (psychological threshold). The break of the hourly support at 1.2392 (18/01/2013 low) favours further shortterm weakness. A key support is at 1.2306 (15/01/2013 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.2405 (intraday high) and 1.2454 (intraday high).
We favour further medium-term upside for the EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
Buy limit 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998
GOLD
Challenging a key resistance area.
Gold is still challenging its key resistance area between 1695 (02/01/2013 high) and 1703 (18/12/2012 high, see also high of the declining channel). Hourly supports can be found at 1684 (18/01/2013 low) and 1667 (17/01/2013 low).
Monitor the base formation defined by the support at 1626 and the resistance at 1695. A break to the upside would open the way for a move towards the resistance at 1755.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Bullish breakout at 32.07.
Silver has broken its resistance at 32.07 (09/11/2012 low). Another resistance can be found at 32.54 (18/12/2012 high). Hourly supports are at 31.83 (22/01/2013 low) and 31.67 (18/01/2013 low).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
