EUR/USD

EURUSD

Weakening.

  • EUR/USD is correcting its rise from the low at 1.2998. We see that weakness as a short-term event and then expect further strength towards the resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high). Monitor the hourly support at 1.3249 (11/01/2013 low, see also 38.2% retracement). An hourly resistance is at 1.3319 (intraday high).

  • The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3172 suggest an improvement of the underlying trend. Strong resistances can be found at 1.3487 and 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Long 3 at 1.3308, Objs: 1.3377/1.3445/1.3985, Stop: 1.3239 (Entered: 2013-01-15)


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Challenging the support at 1.6003.

  • GBP/USD has broken its hourly support at 1.6089 (11/01/2013 low), negating the recent short-term improvements. Monitor the test of the support at 1.6003/1.5993 (09/01/2013 high). Another support can be found at 1.5962. A resistance is at 1.6101 (15/01/2013 high).

  • GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high). A key support area is given by 1.5829 (15/11/2012 low) and 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Correcting.

  • USD/JPY has moved below its hourly supports at 88.74 (intraday low) and 87.98 (intraday low). A key support area can be found between 86.83 and 86.53 (01/01/2013 low). An hourly resistance is at 88.94 (intraday high).

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Buy limit 3 at 86.88, Objs: 87.53/89.48/94.48, Stop: 86.23


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Approaching the key resistance at 0.9383.

  • USD/CHF has broken its resistance at 0.9303 (04/01/2013 high). A key resistance is at 0.9383 (see also the high of the declining channel). Hourly supports are at 0.9257 (intraday low) and 0.9199 (intraday high).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A medium-term decline towards the key support at 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) is expected.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

Moving sideways.

  • USD/CAD is moving sideways close to its support at 0.9825 (13/12/2012 low). Note that a break of this support would open the way for a test of the support at 0.9736 (05/10/2012 low). A break of the hourly resistance at 0.9886 is needed to improve the short-term technical outlook.

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the next six months.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Challenging a strong resistance area.

  • AUD/USD is challenging its strong resistance area between 1.0586 (12/12/2012 high) and 1.0625 (see also long-term declining trendline). Supports can be found at 1.0522 (14/01/2013 low) and 1.0465 (07/01/2013 low).

  • AUD/USD is close to the high of its mediumterm horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

Weakening.

  • GBP/JPY is declining after validating an hourly bearish head and shoulders. Hourly supports are given by the rising trendlines. A key support is at 139.41 (09/01/2013 low). An hourly resistance is at 143.00 (intraday high).

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is expected.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Weakening.

  • EUR/JPY has broken its support at 117.63 (11/01/2013 low). The next supports are given by the steep rising trendline (around 116.00) and 113.56. Hourly resistances are at 117.60 (15/01/2013 low) and 119.06.

  • The recent decline has forced us to stop our long strategy with profits.

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). The long-term technical configuration favours further strength towards the strong resistance at 123.33 (11/04/2011 high).

Our strategy has been stopped for profits.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Pausing.

  • EUR/GBP weakened yesterday, suggesting a short-term correction. The hourly support at 0.8270 has, thus far, held. Another support can be found at 0.8224 (intraday low). An hourly resistance is at 0.8326 (14/01/2013 high).

  • The breakout above the resistance at 0.8225 confirms the validity of the medium-term bullish head and shoulders. Further medium-term rise towards the strong resistance at 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high, see also long-term declining trendline) is expected.

Buy limit 3 at 0.8238, Objs: 0.8283/0.8382/0.8495, Stop: 0.8193


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Monitor the correction after the recent surge higher.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September 2012, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength. The break of the resistance at 1.2185 (17/09/2012 high) opens the way for a move towards the strong resistance at 1.2474 (19/10/2011 high). An hourly support is at 1.2306 (15/01/2013 low).

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 1 at 1.2121, Obj: 1.2474, Stop: 1.2243 (Entered: 2012-09-18)


GOLD

Gold

The steep declining trendline has been broken.

  • Gold has moved higher than its previous high at 1679 (10/01/2013 high, see also steep declining trendline). A key resistance is at 1695 (02/01/2013 high, see also high of the declining channel). Hourly supports can be found at 1676 (intraday low) and 1664 (intraday low).

  • Despite the underlying weakness, the recent inability to break decisively the strong support at 1647 favours the start of a base formation with support at 1626 and resistance at 1695.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Fading close to the resistance at 31.50.

  • Silver is fading close to its resistance at 31.50 (02/01/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 30.97 (15/01/2013 low) and 30.77 (intraday low).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.