EUR/USD
The strong resistance at 1.3172 has been broken.
EUR/USD has broken the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high). Another resistance can be found at 1.3284 (01/05/2012 high). Hourly supports are at 1.3144 (17/12/2012 low) and 1.3041 (13/12/2012 low).
The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3172 suggest an improvement of the underlying trend. However, we still expect a phase of weakness in the next few weeks given the general overbought conditions. A strong resistance is at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Approaching the strong resistance at 1.6302.
GBP/USD has broken the resistance at 1.6178, which opens the way for a test of the strong resistance at 1.6302. Hourly supports can be found at 1.6245 (intraday low) and 1.6193 (intraday low).
GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high). The general overbought conditions suggest that a decisive break to the upside is unlikely in the next few weeks.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Challenging the recent highs.
USD/JPY rose yesterday. It is now challenging its recent highs at 84.48 (17/12/2012 high). Hourly supports can be found at 83.61 (l17/12/2012 low) and 83.25 (intraday low).
The general overbought conditions and the strong resistance at 84.18 suggest an upcoming short-term phase of weakness.
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Making new lows.
USD/CHF continues to move lower after the break of the key support at 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low). Another support is at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9195 (intraday high) and 0.9248 (14/12/2012 high).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The break to the downside out of the horizontal range between 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low) and 0.9502 (31/08/2012 low) confirms a bearish bias.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Moving sideways.
USD/CAD is moving sideways between the support at 0.9825 (13/12/2012 low) and the resistance at 0.9888 (10/12/2012 high). The recent break of the support at 0.9875 (07/11/2012 low) favours a bearish bias. Another support is at 0.9764 (11/10/2012 low).
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Challenging a strong resistance area.
AUD/USD is challenging the strong resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 1.0613. Given the general overbought conditions, the upside potential seems limited. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0509 (13/12/2012 low) and 1.0460 (07/12/2012 low).
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Short 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675 (Entered: 2012-12-12).
GBP/JPY
Making new highs.
GBP/JPY's rise is overextended but still manages to make new highs. The resistance at 137.06 (28/04/2011) has been breached. A key short-term support is at 135.46 (17/12/2012 low).
New highs are bullish. However, the general overbought conditions favour a short-term phase of weakness in the next few days.
GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further long-term strength. The next key resistance is at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Challenging the strong resistance at 111.44/111.60.
EUR/JPY's rise is overextended but, yesterday, it managed to make new highs. It is now challenging the strong resistance at 111.44/111.60. Given the general overbought conditions, we favour a phase of weakness in the next few days.
EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). Monitor the test of the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).
Short 3 at 111.30, Objs: 110.35/108.10/106.10, Stop: 112.25 (Entered: 2012-12-18).
EUR/GBP
Moving sideways.
EUR/GBP has thus far failed to break the key resistance area between 0.8148 (05/12/2012 high) and 0.8169. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8113 (17/12/2012 low) and 0.8090 (13/12/2012 low).
A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Making new lows.
Gold has broken to the downside out of its short-term horizontal range defined by 1685 and 1723. The support at 1673 has been breached. An hourly resistance is at 1703 (18/12/2012 high).
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold in the next few weeks.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Bearish breakout at 32.07.
Silver has broken the support at 32.07 (09/11/2012 low). Other supports can be found at 31.24 (07/11/2012 low) and 30.68 (05/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 32.54 (18/12/2012 high).
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold in the next few weeks.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
