EUR/USD
Approaching a strong resistance area.
EUR/USD rose sharply yesterday and broke the resistance at 1.3046 (04/12/2012 low). It is now close to the strong resistance area defined by 1.3127 (05/12/2012 high) and 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high). Hourly supports are at 1.3056 (intraday low) and 1.2982 (intraday low).
The underlying trend is negative (see the succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak). Therefore we expect limited upside potential given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high) and the general overbought conditions.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Approaching the resistance at 1.6178.
GBP/USD has moved above its previous high at 1.6131 (04/12/2012 high) and is now approaching the resistance at 1.6178. Hourly supports can be found at 1.6113 (intraday low) and 1.6064 (intraday low).
GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high). The general overbought conditions suggest that a break to the upside is unlikely in the next few weeks.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Bullish breakout at 82.84.
USD/JPY has sharply risen out of its horizontal range between 81.65 and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline). A key support is at 82.80 (intraday low).
The overall overbought conditions and the strong resistance at 84.18 suggest an upcoming short-term phase of weakness.
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Declining back to its previous low at 0.9241.
USD/CHF declined significantly yesterday. However, the supports at 0.9241 (03/12/2012 low) and 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low) coupled with oversold conditions favour a phase of strength. Resistance can be found at 0.9294 (intraday high) and 0.9328 (12/12/2012 high).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Monitor the horizontal range between 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low) and 0.9502 (31/08/2012 low).
Long 3 at 0.9246, Objs: 0.9307/0.9380/0.9480, Stop: 0.9185 (Entered: 2012-12-12).
USD/CAD
Moving lower.
USD/CAD has broken its key support at 0.9875 (07/11/2012 low), opening the way for a move towards the next support at 0.9764 (11/10/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 0.9888 (10/12/2012 high) and 0.9934 (07/12/2012 high).
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Challenging strong resistance area.
AUD/USD has risen to the strong resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 1.0613, which suggests a limited upside potential. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0513 (intraday low) and 1.0460 (07/12/2012 low).
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Short 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675 (Entered: 2012-12-12).
GBP/JPY
Bullish breakout at 133.49.
GBP/JPY has broken the strong resistance at 133.49 (21/03/2012 high). The next resistance is at 135.14. Hourly supports are at 133.55 (intraday low) and 132.85 (intraday low).
New highs are bullish. However, the overall overbought conditions favour a short-term phase of weakness in the next few days.
GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further long-term strength. The next key resistance is at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Bullish breakout at 108.00.
EUR/JPY has broken its resistance at 108.00. Hourly supports can be found at 108.61 (intraday low) and 108.00 (intraday low).
The overall overbought conditions and the strong resistance at 111.44/111.60 suggest an upcoming short-term phase of weakness.
EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top), which favours further longterm strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Pushing through the resistance at 0.8082.
EUR/GBP has broken its resistance at 0.8082 (07/12/2012 high). Next resistances can be found at 0.8120 (intraday high) and 0.8148 (05/12/2012 high). Supports are at 0.8080 (intraday low) and 0.8033 (10/12/2012 low).
A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Bearish breakout at 1705.
Gold has failed to break its resistance at 1723 (03/12/2012 high) and has broken its support at 1705. Further consolidation within the range defined by 1685 and 1723 is likely.
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Successful test of the resistance at 33.81.
Silver has failed to break the resistance at 33.81 (03/12/2012 high). Monitor the horizontal range between the support at 32.53 and 33.81.
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
