EUR/USD
Bullish breakout at 1.3023.
EUR/USD has broken its strong resistance at 1.3023 (25/10/2012 high, see also declining trendline). The next resistance is at 1.3084 (22/10/2012 high). An hourly support is at 1.3020 (intraday low).
The underlying trend is negative (see the succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak). Therefore we expect limited upside potential given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high) and the overall overbought conditions.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bullish breakout at 1.6043.
GBP/USD has broken its key resistance at 1.6043 (see also high of the declining channel). A move towards the next key resistance at 1.6178 is expected. An hourly support is at 1.6066 (intraday low).
GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Weakening within horizontal range.
USD/JPY is moving sideways within its horizontal range between the support at 81.65 and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart). A break of the hourly support at 81.91 would call for a test of the low of the range.
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Making marginal new lows.
USD/CHF continues to weaken, but only marginal new lows have, thus far, been made (compared to the new highs in EUR/USD). An hourly resistance is at 0.9304 (29/11/2012 high). Another resistance is at 0.9341.
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Supports can be found at 0.9215 and 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low).
Buy limit 3 at 0.9246, Objs: 0.9307/0.9380/0.9480, Stop: 0.9185.
USD/CAD
Fading close to the high of the shortterm horizontal range.
USD/CAD is moving sideways between the support at 0.9906 and the resistance at 0.9962. However, the succession of lower highs since the 16 November high favours a bearish bias. A key support is at 0.9875.
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Short-term bullish head and shoulders favours a move towards 1.0490.
AUD/USD has made a short-term base formation (bullish head and shoulders) close to the support at 1.0391. A new test of the resistance at 1.0480/1.0490 is likely. An hourly support is at 1.0434 (intraday low).
The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited upside potential.
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.
GBP/JPY
Grinding higher towards the strong resistance at 133.49.
GBP/JPY is grinding higher (see short-term rising channel). Monitor the strong resistance at 133.49. An hourly support can be found at 131.26 (29/11/2012 low). Another support is at 130.46 (28/11/2012 low).
GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further medium-term strength. The next resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Approaching the resistance at 108.00.
EUR/JPY is getting close to the resistance at 108.00. Hourly supports can be found at 106.77 (03/12/2012 low) and 106.16 (29/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 107.59 (03/12/2012 high).
EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top), which favours further longterm strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Grinding higher.
EUR/GBP is grinding higher. Hourly resistance is at 0.8133, while hourly support can be found at 0.8097.
The break of the resistance at 0.8075 favors a rounding bottom. A move towards the resistance at 0.8165 (22/10/2012 high) is expected.
A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.
Long 2 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8159/0.8383, Stop: 0.8075 (Entered: 2012-11-27).
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Challenging the support at 1705.
Gold has weakened below its support at 1705. A daily close below that level would call for a test of the support at 1673. An hourly resistance is at 1723 (03/12/2012 high).
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
The rising trendline has been broken.
Silver is weakening. Monitor the test of the recent low at 33.17 (30/11/2012 low). A key support is at 32.87 (21/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 33.81 (03/12/2012 high).
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
