EUR/USD
Challenging the resistance at 1.3023.
EUR/USD is challenging its strong resistance at 1.3023 (25/10/2012 high, see also declining trendline). An hourly support is at 1.2939 (29/11/2012 low). Another support is at 1.2875 (intraday low).
The underlying trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart). Therefore we expect limited upside potential from current prices.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
The resistance at 1.6043 is challenged.
GBP/USD is challenging the resistance at 1.6043 (see also high of the declining channel). An hourly support is at 1.6002 (29/11/2012 low). Another support is at 1.5962 (28/11/2012 low).
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low), as long as prices remain within the declining channel.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Moving towards its recent highs.
USD/JPY has broken to the upside out of its declining channel. A move towards the resistance at 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline in a daily chart) is expected. An hourly support is at 82.22 (29/11/2012 high). A key support is at 81.65.
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Challenging its previous lows.
USD/CHF is weakening. The previous low at 0.9254 is challenged. A test of the key support at 0.9215 is likely. An hourly resistance is at 0.9304 (29/11/2012 high). Another resistance is at 0.9341.
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Supports can be found at 0.9215 and 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Corrective phase underway.
USD/CAD is moving sideways between the support at 0.9906 and the resistance at 0.9962. However, the succession of lower highs since the 16 November high favours a bearish bias. A key support is at 0.9875.
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
The resistance at 1.0475 has thus far held.
AUD/USD failed to break the resistance at 1.0475/1.0480 yesterday. The support at 1.0427 (28/11/2012 low) has been breached. Another support can be found at 1.0391 (intraday low).
The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited short-term upside potential.
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.
GBP/JPY
Pushing higher towards the strong resistance at 133.49.
GBP/JPY has risen above its resistance at 132.45 (26/11/2012 high). Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 133.49. An hourly support can be found at 132.13 (intraday low). A key support is at 130.46 (28/11/2012 low).
GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further medium-term strength. The next resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Pushing higher towards the resistance at 108.00.
EUR/JPY is making new highs. Monitor the test of the resistance at 108.00. An hourly support is at 107.01 (intraday low). A key support is at 105.28 (28/11/2012 low).
EUR/JPY is challenging its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). A decisive break would call for further strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Challenging the recent highs.
EUR/GBP is challenging its previous high at 0.8114. Another resistance is at 0.8148. Supports can be found at 0.8082 and 0.8058.
The break of the resistance at 0.8075 favors a rounding bottom. A move towards the resistance at 0.8165 (22/10/2012 high) is expected.
A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.
Long 3 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8117/0.8159/0.8383, Stop: 0.8033 (Entered: 2012-11-27).
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Monitor the rebound after the recent sharp decline.
Gold is rebounding after its sharp decline made on 28 November. The resistance at 1724 (intraday high) has been broken. Another resistance is at 1738 (intraday low). A key support is at 1705 (15/11/2012 low).
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Making new highs and challenging the resistance at 34.34.
Silver has completely erased the losses made on 28 November. The key resistance at 34.34 is challenged. A support is at 33.84 (intraday high). A key support is at 32.87 (21/11/2012 low).
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
