EUR/USD
Strong resistance area broken.
EUR/USD has broken its strong resistance area between 1.2876 and 1.2894. An hourly support is at 1.2834 (intraday low). A strong resistance is at 1.3023.
The underlying trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart). Therefore we expect limited upside potential from current prices.
Short 3 at 1.2874, Objs: 1.2808/1.2710/1.2550, Stop: 1.2940 (Entered: 2012-11-22).
GBP/USD
Grinding higher.
GBP/USD is still moving within its short-term rising channel. Resistances can be found at 1.5978 (22/11/2012 high) and 1.6019 (09/11/2012 high). An hourly support is at 1.5919 (22/11/2012 low, see also rising channel). Another support is at 1.5883.
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low) as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Short-term momentum is weakening.
USD/JPY closed near its opening price yesterday, indicating a weakening short-term momentum. The hourly support at 82.36 (intraday low) has been broken. Monitor the support at 81.65 (21/11/2012 low). Resistance is at 83.39 (27/03/2012 high, see also declining trendline).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Strong support area broken.
USD/CHF has broken its key support area between 0.9399 and 0.9364 (respectively 38.2% and 50.0% retracement of the previous rise).
Supports can be found at 0.9329 (62.8% retracement of the previous rise) and 0.9277. A resistance is at 0.9385 (intraday high).The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The key resistance is at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Moving sideways.
USD/CAD is still moving sideways. Monitor the support at 0.9947 and the resistance at 0.9998.
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame).
Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Grinding higher towards resistance levels.
AUD/USD is moving sideways within the horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0305 and the resistance at 1.0475. The recent strength has pushed prices near the resistance at 1.0425 (see also declining trendline). However, the succession of lower highs since the 7 November high favours a bearish bias.
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Fading near resistance at 131.83.
GBP/JPY is showing signs of weakness close to the resistance at 131.83. Supports can be found at 130.01 (21/11/2012 low) and 128.93 (19/11/2012 low).
GBP/JPY is challenging its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A decisive break of this trendline would call for further medium-term strength.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Short-term overextended rise.
EUR/JPY has broken its strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 104.59.
The next resistance is at 108.00. Supports can be found at 105.72 (intraday low) and 104.10 (21/11/2012 low).EUR/JPY is challenging its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). A decisive break would call for further strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).
Long 2 at 105.30, Objs: 107.60/110.80, Stop: 105.30 (Entered: 2012-11-21).
EUR/GBP
Resistance area has been broken.
EUR/GBP has broken the resistance area between 0.8065 (15/11/2012 high) and 0.8075. The next resistances can be found at 0.8097 (intraday high) and 0.8148 (24/10/2012 high).
Hourly support is at 0.8058 (intraday high).A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.
Buy limit 3 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8150/0.8255/0.8468, Stop: 0.7999.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Moving sideways.
Gold is moving sideways within the range defined by the support at 1703 (07/11/2012 low) and the resistance at 1739 (09/11/2012 high).
Hourly support is at 1721.The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Challenging the resistance at 33.37.
Silver continues to grind higher. The resistance at 33.37 is challenged. An hourly support can be found at 32.87 (21/11/2012 low).
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
