EUR/USD
The resistance at 1.2790 has been broken.
EUR/USD has moved higher than its resistance at 1.2790 (09/11/2012 high). The next resistance is given by the declining trendline. Hourly support is at 1.2752 (intraday low).
The break to the downside out of the consolidation from mid-September to November (see triangle) calls for further weakness towards the support at 1.2431 as long as prices remain below the resistance area between 1.2876 and 1.2894.
The long-term trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Challenging the resistance at 1.5916.
GBP/USD is bouncing after having broken its key support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low). The hourly resistance at 1.5916 has been breached but prices have thus far failed to hold above it. Monitor the hourly support at 1.5888 (intraday low). Support is at 1.5829.
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low) as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Pausing after sharp rise.
USD/JPY is moving sideways after its recent sharp rise. Hourly supports can be found at 80.90 (16/11/2012 low) and 80.76 (intraday low). Hourly resistance is at 81.59 (19/11/2012 high).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Near strong support area.
USD/CHF has weakened since its 13 November high. It is now close to a key support area between 0.9399 and 0.9364 (respectively 38.2% and 50.0% retracement of the previous rise). An hourly resistance is at 0.9452 (intraday high).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. However, the recent break above the key resistance at 0.9438 favours further short-term strength. The next key resistance is at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high).
Long 3 at 0.9405, Objs: 0.9455/0.9628/0.9855, Stop: 0.9355 (Entered: 2012-11-19).
USD/CAD
Support at 0.9983 has been broken.
USD/CAD has broken the supports implied by the low of its short-term rising channel and by 0.9983 (09/11/2012 low). Monitor the support at 0.9947 (08/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance can be found at 0.9992 (intraday high).
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Resistance at 1.0400 has been broken.
AUD/USD has broken the resistance area given by 1.0387 (15/11/2012 high) and 1.0400. An hourly support is at 1.0385 (intraday low). The next resistances are given by the declining trendline and 1.0459 (14/11/2012 high).
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Challenging a strong resistance area.
GBP/JPY has broken its declining trendline but is still under its resistance at 129.65. Hourly supports can be found at 128.87 (intraday low) and 128.26 (16/11/2012 low).
GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A break of this trendline is needed to suggest further medium-term upside potential.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Challenging a strong resistance area.
EUR/JPY is challenging its strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 104.59. Hourly supports can be found at 103.52 (intraday low) and 103.05 (16/11/2012 low).
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The support to monitor for a short-term corrective phase is 99.52 (11/09/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Monitor potential base formation.
EUR/GBP is moving sideways between the support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low) and the resistance at 0.8075 (31/10/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.8001 (14/11/2012 low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to negate this view.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Challenging its recent highs.
Gold is testing the resistance area given by 1734 (14/11/2012 high) and 1739 (09/11/2012 high). An hourly support is at 1728 (intraday low). A key support is at 1703 (07/11/2012 low).
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Breaking higher above its hourly horizontal range.
Silver has broken to the upside out of its shortterm horizontal range between 32.07 and 32.92. Monitor the test of the resistance at 33.37. An hourly support can be found at 32.82 (intraday low).
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
