EUR/USD
Bearish breakout at 1.2748.
EUR/USD has broken its key support at 1.2748 (see also 38.2% retracement of the rise from 1.2043 to 1.3172). The technical configuration is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.2876 (07/11/2012 high). Hourly resistance at 1.2790 (09/11/2012 high).
The long-term trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high). The break of the support 1.2748 opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.2431.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bearish breakout at 1.5914.
GBP/USD has broken its key support at 1.5914. The technical configuration is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
The rising trendline has held thus far.
USD/JPY has broken its support at 79.30, but has successfully tested its rising trendline. Resistances can be found at 79.76 and 80.03 (intraday high and declining trendline). Hourly support is at 79.08.
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The successful test of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) calls for a short-term corrective phase. The maximum downside risk is likely limited by the support at 77.95 (11/10/2012 low).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Grinding higher towards resistance at 0.9502.
USD/CHF continues to rise after the break of its key resistance at 0.9438. It is now challenging the resistance at 0.9502. Support is at 0.9429 (09/11/2012 low).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. However, the recent break above the key resistance at 0.9438 favours further short-term strength. The next key resistance is at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Fading near its previous highs.
USD/CAD has successfully tested its short-term support area between 0.9889 and 0.9872 (38.2% retracement of the rise from 0.9633 to 1.0019). Prices have thus far been unable to hold above the resistance at 1.0019. An hourly support is at 0.9983. Another support is at 0.9947 (08/11/2012 low).
The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Rising trendline has held thus far.
AUD/USD has failed to break the resistance at 1.0475 (28/09/2012 high). Support is given by the rising trendline. Hourly resistance is at 1.0444 (08/11/2012 high).
AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Long 3 at 1.0410, Objs: 1.0470/1.0600/1.0800, Stop: 1.0350 (Entered: 2012-11-07).
GBP/JPY
Bearish breakout at 126.71.
GBP/JPY has failed to break its declining trendline and has broken its support at 126.71. A move towards the support at 124.75 (see also rising trendline) is expected. A resistance is at 127.47 (09/11/2012 high).
GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A break of this trendline is needed to suggest further medium-term upside potential.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Moving lower.
EUR/JPY has broken its support a 101.80 (see also rising trendline). Further decline towards the support at 100.16 is expected. Hourly resistance is at 101.75 (09/11/2012 high). Another resistance can be found at 102.19 (08/11/2012 high).
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The supports to monitor for a short-term corrective phase are 99.52 (11/09/2012 low) and 97.73 (17/08/2012 low).
Sell limit 3 at 101.70, Objs: 101.00/99.90/98.15, Stop: 102.40.
EUR/GBP
Bouncing.
EUR/GBP bounced last Friday. However, a move towards the key short-term support at 0.7924 is still favoured. An hourly resistance is at 0.8031 (07/11/2012 high). The key short-term resistance is at 0.8078 (24/10/2012 low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 to negate this view.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Short-term resistance at 1732 is challenged.
Gold has bounced sharply since its low at 1673. The short-term resistance at 1732 has been breached despite the recent USD strength. Another resistance is at 1754 (17/10/2012 low). Support is at 1703 (07/11/2012 low).
The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Bounce is challenging short-term resistance.
Silver's bounce has failed, thus far, to close on a daily basis above its short-term resistance around 32.60-32.67. An hourly support is at 32.07 (see also rising trendline). Another resistance is at 33.37.
The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
