EUR/USD

Challenging support area.

  • EUR/USD continues to weaken since its 18 October high. It is now challenging the support area implied by its rising trendline and 1.2891. The hourly resistance is given by the short-term declining trendline (around 1.2970).

  • Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), we need to see a break of the support area between 1.2804 (01/10/2012 low) and 1.2748 to suggest that the rise from 1.2043 is over.

Long 3 at 1.2970, Objs: 1.3060/1.3160/1.3460, Stop: 1.2880 (Entered: 2012-10-25).


GBP/USD

The short-term declining channel has held.

  • GBP/USD has failed to break the resistance implied by the high of its declining channel. Monitor the hourly support at 1.6048 (24/10/2012 high). Another support can be found at 1.6009 (intraday low).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a consolidation phase.

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

Sharp decline below the support area favours further weakness.

  • USD/JPY sharply declined last Friday. The break of the support area given by 79.69 and the rising trendline favours a second leg down (the first one was from 80.38 to 79.50). The hourly resistance is at 79.75 (intraday high). A shortterm support is at 78.90 (18/10/2012 low).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. Monitor the key resistance at 80.62.

Long 2 at 78.18, Objs: 80.62/83.00, Stop: 78.18 (Entered: 2012-09-20).


USD/CHF

Grinding higher.

  • USD/CHF has breached its resistance at 0.9372 (15/10/2012 high), suggesting an extension of the rise towards the key resistance at 0.9438. An hourly support is at 0.9327 (intraday low, see also rising trendline).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) opens the way for a mediumterm move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.9438 (01/10/2012 high) is needed to negate this bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

The key resistance at 0.9949 has been broken.

  • USD/CAD has broken its key resistance at 0.9949. The next resistances can be found at 1.0000 (psychological level) and 1.0085 (02/08/2012 high). A short-term support is at 0.9889 (24/10/2012 low).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel). However, the break of the resistance at 0.9949 is short-term positive.

Short 3 at 0.9950, Objs: 0.9890/0.9820/0.9670, Stop: 1.0010 (Entered: 2012-10-25).


AUD/USD

Moving sideways.

  • AUD/USD has failed to break the resistance at 1.0412. It is now moving within a possible shortterm symmetrical triangle. An hourly support is at 1.0305 (intraday low).

  • AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

Faiding near the declining trendline.

  • GBP/JPY has failed, thus far, to break its declining trendline. The break of the support at 128.19 (22/10/2012 high) favours a short-term corrective phase. A short-term support is at 126.71 (22/10/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A break of this trendline is needed to suggest further medium-term upside potential.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Long-term declining trendline intact thus far.

  • EUR/JPY has failed, thus far, to break its longterm declining trendline. The break of the support area between 103.13 and 102.90 (38.2% retracement) calls for further short-term weakness. An hourly resistance is at 103.30 (intraday high).

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Challenging the support area near 0.8023.

  • EUR/GBP is challenging the short-term support area between 0.8023 (11/10/2012 low) and the rising trendline. An hourly resistance is at 0.8078 (24/10/2012 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high) and 0.8169 to negate this view.

Sell limit 3 at 0.8126, Objs: 0.8072/0.8009/0.7960, Stop: 0.8180.


EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Possible short-term base formation.

  • Gold has successfully tested its previous low at 1699 (24/10/2012 low). A possible short-term base formation could be underway. Monitor the hourly resistance at 1718. A short-term resistance is at 1732 (23/10/2012 high).

  • The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, favours a corrective phase. The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold though.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523.

Short 2 at 1775, Objs: 1690/1657, Stop: 1775 (Entered: 2012-09-27).


SILVER

Moving sideways.

  • Silver is still under the bearish influence of its declining trendline. However, the support at 31.52 has held thus far. The short-term resistance is at 32.60 (intraday high).

  • The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.