EUR/USD
Failing to move higher than its hourly resistance.
EUR/USD rose yesterday but failed to break its hourly resistance at 1.3077 (19/10/2012 high). A test of the support area between 1.3016 (intraday low) and 1.2991 (09/10/2012 high) is likely. We keep a bullish bias given the bullish breakout out of the symmetrical triangle (whose implied target is 1.3320).
Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), the recent improvements suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is not over.
Long 3 at 1.3035, Objs: 1.3090/1.3290/1.3365, Stop: 1.2980 (Entered: 2012-10-19).
GBP/USD
Moving back to its support levels.
GBP/USD erased all yesterday's gains by weakening into the close. A test of the support area between 1.5977 (10/10/2012 low) and 1.5960 (10/09/2012 low) is expected. An hourly resistance is at 1.6067 (19/10/2012 high).
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a consoilidation phase.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Pushing through the resistance at 79.66.
USD/JPY has broken its resistance at 79.66. Monitor the key resistance area given by the long-term declining trendline and 80.62. An hourly support is at 79.43 (19/10/2012 high). A short-term support is at 78.99 (intraday low).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.
Long 2 at 78.18, Objs: 80.62/83.00, Stop: 78.18 (Entered: 2012-09-20).
USD/CHF
Challenging resistance area.
USD/CHF's bounce is expected to find resistance between 0.9287 (intraday high) and 0.9298 (38.2% retracement). The short-term support is at 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) opens the way for a mediumterm move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). Therefore, the rise from 0.9239 is viewed as a countertrend rally. A break of the resistance at 0.9438 (01/10/2012 high) is needed to negate this bearish bias.
Short 3 at 0.9215, Objs: 0.9120/0.9010/0.8650, Stop: 0.9310 (Entered: 2012-10-17).
USD/CAD
Testing the key resistance at 0.9949.
USD/CAD has broken its resistance at 0.9884 and is now challenging the key resistance at 0.9949. An hourly support is at 0.9917 (22/10/2012 low). A short-term support is at 0.9879 (16/10/2012 high).
The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Moreover, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this medium-term bias.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Testing support levels.
AUD/USD is declining towards the support area implied by 1.0289 and the rising trendline. As long as this support area holds, a move towards the short-term resistance at 1.0475 (28/09/2012 high) is favoured.
AUD/USD is moving within a horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Fading close to the resistance at 128.24.
GBP/JPY is showing signs of weakness close to the resistance at 128.24 (8/10/2012 high). A short-term support is at 126.78 (17/10/2012 low).
GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. Nevertheless, the break of the short-term declining channel favours a test of this long-term downtrend. The key resistance is at 128.84.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Key resistance at 103.86 broken.
EUR/JPY has broken its resistance at 103.86 but is fading close to its declining trendline. Monitor the hourly supports at 103.75 (intraday low) and 103.13 (22/10/2012 low).
We have removed our entry point as it is not anymore in sync with the technical configuration.
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.
We have removed our strategy.
EUR/GBP
Challenging key resistance at 0.8169.
EUR/GBP has broken its declining trendline and its resistance at 0.8115. Monitor the key horizontal resistance at 0.8169. An hourly support is at 0.8108 (intraday low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high) and 0.8169 to negate this view.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)
GOLD
Testing the support at 1721.
Gold is challenging again its support at 1721. The next horizontal support can be found at 1686. An hourly resistance is at 1739 (intraday high).
The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, favours a corrective phase.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523.
Short 2 at 1775, Objs: 1690/1657, Stop: 1775 (Entered: 2012-09-27)
SILVER
Bouncing close to the support at 31.94.
Silver bounced yesterday. However, for the time being, prices have been unable to move above its hourly resistance at 32.6 (intrady high). Monitor the recent low at 31.72 (see also 38.2% retracement from the rise that started on 28 June) as prices are close to oversold levels.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
